TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,505
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,505 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf79a…45edbacked No61c22,052$13,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,451.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c4…b335backed Yes39c22,052$8,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,451.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No1c4,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No2c3,181$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.982528%7 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick11cpaid+190.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No2c3,181$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.983729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+134.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes29c2,326$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.0510137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No1c2,150$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193828.9%11 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No68c1,403$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.364459.1%26 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb82…9f37backed No77c1,298$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes34c1,175$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.349326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No65c1,100$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.61526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No47c836.87$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.081861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes27c548.41$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.411346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes57c541.5$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.984443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No54c531.97$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.825438.9%21 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No56c492.81$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.8225528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e20…04e2backed Yes42c479.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No67c459.58$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.934656.5%26 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35b5…6950backed Yes41c426.41$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes42c405.02$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.935850%29 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes43c334.02$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.64633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed No57c299.99$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e0a…5e93backed No60c276.48$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.89944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes45c275.89$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.235527.3%15 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce29…3518backed No67c261.43$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.7830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf737…9f0dbacked No56c249$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1723…3aa4backed Yes25c243$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+295.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes41c237.75$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.234346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x882c…6fc8backed Yes25c223$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+295.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes65c214.99$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5512937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1834…795abacked Yes41c202.49$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.781442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1083652.8%19 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes64c194.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.451353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes38c192.73$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.652965.5%19 W · 10 L+6.8wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+49.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No41c185$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.054533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03a7…3b17backed Yes25c185$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+295.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x231e…9297backed No66c182.18$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12150%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd394…b4fcbacked No45c178$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes77c176.98$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.077525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No19c175.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5810426%27 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd1…32bdbacked Yes28c172$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed No71c170.01$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0160%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes28c167.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.662540%10 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ae0…a71dbacked Yes30c167.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+235.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf92…84b3backed No75c157$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7478…4003backed No71c154.7$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5835…ca79backed No45c154$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a4…0b9ebacked No66c151.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick76cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x758d…f53bbacked Yes56c149$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf76…9170backed Yes28c147$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+261%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f1…dc69backed Yes25c146$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+295.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x691e…d59dbacked No60c144$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.17475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd6…651cbacked Yes27c141.11$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95e8…9616backed Yes27c141.11$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1031100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked No71c140.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x309f…906dbacked Yes56c137$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12fb…b892backed No69c136.95$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72f3…a970backed No45c136$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a68…c398backed Yes25c136$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+295.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb59…1e96backed Yes52c135.18$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.181250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fd8…372bbacked No74c135.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-50.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbd6…1143backed Yes28c135$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+261%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes32c130.51$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.942313%3 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a67…15d3backed No61c129.48$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5240%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5734…f13abacked No62c127.65$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes53c125.21$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.491758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+45.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e1…8f7ebacked No45c124$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dbe…67c3backed Yes44c124$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc342…885fbacked Yes14c121$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+571.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09c7…ce25backed Yes38c120$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+161.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c8d…18fabacked Yes29c120$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+247.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97b9…48eebacked Yes28c120$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+261%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aac…a90dbacked Yes56c118$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No47c117.46$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2417232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5207…c265backed Yes29c116$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+249.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a4…10dbbacked No75c116$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ea8…7bf6backed No45c115$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffed…1f3bbacked No56c113$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df8…2053backed Yes27c113$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+267.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac1d…5d59backed Yes56c111$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0417…05d5backed Yes28c110$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+261%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…7aa7backed Yes45c110$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ea…5799backed No60c101.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed3…0f58backed Yes28c101$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+261%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c9…428bbacked Yes27c100.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2741736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9154…4830backed No55c98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9952…f25abacked No75c97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f61…6961backed No75c97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa52…f0fcbacked No75c94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7968…7adebacked No57c93$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes28c91.91$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+66%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcce9…9e9cbacked No64c90$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3b…a2d3backed No67c89.44$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc746…3775backed No75c89$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73ab…80cbbacked No57c89$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31e5…0b07backed No61c89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52c7…cfa2backed No75c88$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93c1…f107backed No55c88$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.