TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,934

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes4c8,547$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes5c6,774$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.8325311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c3,813$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.84535.7%3 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c3,339$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4415217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c3,014$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.54704.3%3 W · 67 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Yes15c2,113$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9833…0b32backed Yes11c1,590$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes48c1,386$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.0712927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82a…be8cbacked Yes13c1,125$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8964…0becbacked Yes49c1,026$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.11683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+79.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No51c1,005$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.591526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb188…f6a6backed Yes11c925.07$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes9c901.4$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.13520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes8c810.52$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ad…b1bbbacked Yes4c772.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6269…1887backed Yes14c678.14$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No21c657.66$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.085843.1%25 W · 33 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked Yes8c605.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.911827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No80c600$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1208247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes77c563.5$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.569138.5%35 W · 56 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes6c547.82$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.633321.2%7 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4378…b962backed Yes5c524.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a1…b979backed Yes25c509.99$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30190%0 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19c7…6045backed Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…d972backed Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes23c435.24$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.11450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes5c424.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.21825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes4c400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9380%0 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes4c400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-69.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No71c399.99$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1153652.8%19 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes29c399.8$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11439429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c398.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.085327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No79c397.8$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.286100%6 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+94.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b8b…2183backed Yes13c375.18$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+65.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf088…4942backed No21c321.04$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+61.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304214.3%6 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-65.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed No19c293.83$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2382412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes31c292.55$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.326835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked No20c279.8$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.912222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x183c…ca7fbacked No18c270$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9921…0082backed Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes8c249.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8f3…12a9backed Yes20c247.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes9c243$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes80c240$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.821426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c238.3$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7930837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked No17c230.98$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.171811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1e…75edbacked No13c220$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.41764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+93.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes30c216.71$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.782839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcce3…02c4backed Yes12c202$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1813128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd574…425dbacked No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick71cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166431.3%20 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68d8…af58backed Yes9c199.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+126.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3a0…2698backed Yes17c199.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eea…4bb0backed Yes16c199.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdc…aa82backed Yes56c190$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-77.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cf5…5ca2backed Yes63c177.34$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes19c164.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.241250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac02…af1bbacked Yes9c159.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No18c150$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.7513622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdaae…ee3cbacked Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf05c…d8fcbacked Yes16c149.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c09…dfb9backed Yes12c146$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d7d…928abacked Yes24c145.83$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x921d…76b4backed Yes13c128.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes28c127.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.781526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-33.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes11c126.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.92387.9%3 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02e5…1ad6backed No77c126$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5731…e855backed No16c122$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddce…7194backed Yes15c120$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d2…16afbacked Yes23c120$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes10c118.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5817122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x492d…781dbacked No56c112.55$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No22c111.57$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.1315451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes9c111.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…c5f7backed No17c110$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98f1…78b6backed No19c108$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+425.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a6…e94fbacked Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0892…48d8backed No71c103.45$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54c…377ebacked No17c101$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+484.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6140…08b0backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95b2…49aabacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd85c…f1f0backed No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4715…fce1backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62f0…a5eabacked No19c99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6894…7075backed No17c99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a95…f2ddbacked Yes75c96$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e4e…ce69backed No17c95$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No32c92.05$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.821861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a9a…e482backed No20c90.4$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked No70c89.74$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.925850%29 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0975…0815backed No19c89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab5…46c0backed Yes80c88.9$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51e1…c98abacked Yes23c88.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.