TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,215 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c4,311$175 inLost-$175.1825311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes3c3,445$111 inLost-$111.2714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-58.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes2c3,429$85 inLost-$85.1480%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a2…ce8fbacked Yes8c2,954$232 inLost-$23210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes2c2,933$66 inLost-$65.56520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes6c2,864$171 inLost-$170.5310812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,392$105 inLost-$104.595327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes4c2,255$92 inLost-$92.251844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c2,247$114 inLost-$114.08704.3%3 W · 67 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed Yes5c2,017$91 inLost-$91.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,592$19 inLost-$18.7415217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Yes3c1,514$47 inLost-$4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes7c1,453$100 inLost-$1005036%18 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada4…48babacked Yes7c1,327$94 inLost-$94.4560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes7c1,309$90 inLost-$89.661127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes9c1,283$114 inLost-$114.0810137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90bf…99ebbacked Yes1c1,092$13 inLost-$13.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes10c875.61$87 inLost-$86.6911840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2148…639ebacked Yes7c830.99$56 inLost-$56.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x338c…738bbacked Yes14c733.51$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…d82cbacked Yes9c698$65 inLost-$64.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes5c696.78$32 inLost-$32.26752.7%2 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c678.6$32 inLost-$31.9539429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes7c508.28$35 inLost-$34.578711.5%10 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes9c500$46 inLost-$465422.2%12 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes4c500$18 inLost-$18.384022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53a0…4af0backed Yes2c500$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes5c458.57$25 inLost-$25.223411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…f0ebbacked Yes2c432.11$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14be…4498backed Yes10c411.82$40 inLost-$40742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3749…7ad0backed Yes3c400$11 inLost-$11.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes6c399.99$26 inLost-$25.89115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes5c341.85$17 inLost-$17.1625528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes4c322.34$11 inLost-$11.39380%0 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes6c289.6$17 inLost-$17.2110426%27 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1125…e8b1backed Yes5c282.6$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes5c250$13 inLost-$12.632015%3 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes7c200$13 inLost-$136665.2%43 W · 23 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$10.3712225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed Yes5c200$11 inLost-$10.6190%0 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed Yes7c185$13 inLost-$12.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked Yes10c131$13 inLost-$13.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes27c125$34 inLost-$34.255527.3%15 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.