TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,436

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,508 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes4c2,478$100 inLost-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes9c1,777$151 inLost-$151.3826835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c1,446$140 inLost-$139.8221426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c1,385$40 inLost-$39.9125311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,380$40 inLost-$40.245327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed Yes22c1,201$269 inLost-$268.81119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick36cpaid-88.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d6b…5263backed Yes4c1,153$50 inLost-$49.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed Yes5c999.99$50 inLost-$50190%0 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes4c810.49$30 inLost-$30.062425%6 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+101.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e51…9531backed Yes7c715$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes3c573.75$19 inLost-$19.2460%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c533.17$19 inLost-$18.78704.3%3 W · 67 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c461.86$15 inLost-$15.0839429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes10c437.99$42 inLost-$41.8560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+230.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes7c417.34$29 inLost-$29.213920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes15c400$60 inLost-$59.781346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1db…e1bcbacked Yes5c399.11$20 inLost-$19.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No74c370.79$274 inWon+$96.412259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes7c298.72$20 inLost-$20110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed Yes8c250$20 inLost-$201850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes19c245.94$46 inLost-$45.91742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes10c231$23 inLost-$23.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde31…4f59backed Yes13c230.47$30 inLost-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes8c230$18 inLost-$17.7933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-50.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x171b…c85bbacked Yes12c200$24 inLost-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x41ca…9c0abacked Yes13c181.7$24 inLost-$24.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes12c167.92$20 inLost-$2010357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eda…17d1backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes14c160.91$23 inLost-$22.748641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes8c150$12 inLost-$1260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes7c145.13$10 inLost-$10.019341.9%39 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4121…7499backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes17c129.87$22 inLost-$22.089037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a9e…1256backed Yes9c122.22$11 inLost-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes12c100$12 inLost-$1217122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf55f…892bbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x299e…c4a3backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No80c60$48 inWon+$129138.5%35 W · 56 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No74c50.1$37 inWon+$13.033148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.