TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$216,055
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$219,128

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,055 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c9f…35ccbacked Yes75c81,225$60,919 inWon+$20,306.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick74cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa083…0795backed No25c81,225$20,306 inLost-$20,306.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No0c7,272$19 inLost-$18.633920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c5,020$10 inLost-$10.06180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No1c3,635$26 inLost-$25.57230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No11c3,561$379 inLost-$379.4280%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No3c3,401$106 inLost-$105.764443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bd8…2c30backed No1c1,606$12 inLost-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2789…96a2backed No2c999.98$22 inLost-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked No2c728.41$15 inLost-$15.08425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc028…9349backed No3c637.55$19 inLost-$18.72520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No14c633.33$86 inLost-$86.314459.1%26 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No3c500$13 inLost-$12.53724.3%9 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No17c350.85$59 inLost-$59.3711040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc65c…d46fbacked No4c303.97$11 inLost-$11.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No11c294.46$32 inLost-$31.6525528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No10c264$27 inLost-$26.631127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes76c151.58$115 inWon+$36.581346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No7c140$10 inLost-$10.333119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No11c104.17$11 inLost-$10.961070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked No12c100$12 inLost-$11.82931%9 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No18c97.36$17 inLost-$17.475550.9%28 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No18c89$16 inLost-$16.3941736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No21c48.24$10 inLost-$10.0414239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No24c45$11 inLost-$10.83630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.