TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,992 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc8e…c16abacked Yes39c27,506$10,727 inLost-$10,727.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2f0…2147backed No61c27,506$16,779 inWon+$10,727.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Yes1c22,222$222 inLost-$222.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes1c5,345$57 inLost-$57.013920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes18c2,090$370 inLost-$370.4410137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No69c1,107$766 inWon+$341.034443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes11c934.12$100 inLost-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-77.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes10c500$49 inLost-$491346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No76c497.08$378 inWon+$119.438641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes9c475$41 inLost-$40.655119.6%10 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bb…c118backed Yes5c470.74$25 inLost-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes20c408$80 inLost-$79.56742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked No74c351.9$261 inWon+$90.91136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes5c299.62$14 inLost-$14.18166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-63.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c241$46 inLost-$45.8539429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5226…b4f5backed Yes5c220$11 inLost-$10.7460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes7c180$12 inLost-$12.062128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-58.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd137…f456backed Yes13c139.67$18 inLost-$17.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb782…955cbacked No72c124.89$90 inWon+$34.97875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+130.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes20c72$14 inLost-$14.1741736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No79c70$55 inWon+$14.691861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb9d…d78ebacked No74c70$52 inWon+$18.15862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes18c61.18$11 inLost-$10.878927%24 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No75c59.99$45 inWon+$151070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc68…47bdbacked No73c43.92$32 inWon+$12.06580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b0…f9a8backed No73c21$15 inWon+$5.67580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a17…228cbacked No80c21$17 inWon+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe24f…e370backed No74c20$15 inWon+$5.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7364…d44ebacked No78c20$16 inWon+$4.39366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6479…d5aabacked No74c17.52$13 inWon+$4.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd228…2db9backed No80c15$12 inWon+$31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.