TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$247,823

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,408 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6fd5…2a3fbacked Yes19c74,668$14,187 inLost-$14,186.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ca…b7f8backed Yes1c7,607$61 inLost-$60.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8abe…068dbacked Yes1c5,070$41 inLost-$40.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked Yes22c4,637$1,000 inLost-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes1c1,680$16 inLost-$15.5925311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No26c1,133$289 inWon+$844.122441.7%10 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.28per pick14cpaid+203.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x75f9…93a2backed Yes3c1,083$32 inLost-$31.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x218f…7ef2backed Yes14c962$137 inLost-$137.07633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x124b…8a69backed Yes4c918.46$40 inLost-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes3c775$23 inLost-$23.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes4c545.66$20 inLost-$20185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-77.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes2c533.73$10 inLost-$10.22119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-78.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc438…b4f5backed Yes4c521.73$21 inLost-$2140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes4c500$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c434.45$12 inLost-$12.3813910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c357.39$13 inLost-$12.615327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e9…56d4backed Yes14c350.44$50 inLost-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes11c349.67$38 inLost-$38.3221426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No66c258.13$170 inWon+$88.552941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes13c200$25 inLost-$255119.6%10 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x990d…5463backed Yes7c175.97$12 inLost-$12.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No58c171.53$100 inWon+$71.536747.8%32 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes7c159.29$11 inLost-$10.763321.2%7 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb920…37ebbacked Yes15c150$23 inLost-$22.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-70.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f97…27d5backed Yes17c144.12$24 inLost-$2440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9004…f30dbacked Yes7c142.86$10 inLost-$10450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8582…2a47backed Yes9c130$12 inLost-$11.730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed Yes14c118$16 inLost-$161850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07a4…fd85backed Yes38c78.95$30 inLost-$30757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+192.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes21c72.22$15 inLost-$15.4425528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6719…744dbacked Yes21c71.9$15 inLost-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ced…c4a8backed No63c31.75$20 inWon+$11.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+38.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes38c31.53$12 inLost-$121533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes39c31.12$12 inLost-$12.275550.9%28 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed Yes41c30.53$13 inLost-$12.52425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c27.49$22 inWon+$5.6741736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ed1…1240backed No68c25$17 inWon+$7.95771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadd3…263fbacked No66c20$13 inWon+$6.81070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.