TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,342
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$203,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,342 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5108…bb94backed Yes71c52,144$37,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,121.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe839…5487backed No29c52,144$15,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,121.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed No65c5,471$3,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,556.62825%7 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-52.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd182…8921backed Yes30c4,286$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,992.95837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No76c3,810$2,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9014656.5%26 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3cb…56b5backed Yes60c3,693$2,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.511346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked No0c3,637$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes30c2,773$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.043348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c1,889$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.735327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No21c1,850$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.1715125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No3c1,679$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6713910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes69c1,566$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.82965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed No8c1,432$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes72c1,345$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.983164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No48c1,333$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.284045%18 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes24c1,331$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.549138.5%35 W · 56 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes71c1,097$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.694045%18 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes22c1,055$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.812937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes52c999.14$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.65527.3%15 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No33c993.58$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.063745.9%17 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No4c993.3$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.898927%24 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes40c950.55$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.711020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-61.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes45c778.77$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.772839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf81e…b7e6backed Yes38c737.9$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+199.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88ff…ac66backed Yes14c700$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5991100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+593.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes44c638.07$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.073828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes13c500$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4355119.6%10 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes18c469.85$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.639037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No29c458$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.12429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed Yes56c450$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No12c432.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.225843.1%25 W · 33 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes48c425$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.112830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes14c361$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.8321426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No39c302.3$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.17525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed Yes11c300$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2676830.9%21 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed No31c300$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.51872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+37.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No6c271$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.13933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9491…2e3cbacked Yes65c250$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf088…4942backed No14c241.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+61.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No11c232.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4517122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb782…955cbacked Yes11c200$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+130.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No43c193.43$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3111530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes46c190.55$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.93342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes59c185.62$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0513622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe378…4cecbacked No37c172.7$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.64560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes55c171.78$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.029326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No41c167.87$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.012138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes20c155.2$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+153.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No72c151.21$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.536336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes40c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6339429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes77c146.38$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.142295.5%21 W · 1 L+5.9wins+0.27per pick69cpaid+41.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c144$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8226318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x313d…5e27backed No22c136.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No43c133.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.626238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c129.97$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5641736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed Yes65c114.96$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.811968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed Yes37c105.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.52445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000b…0872backed No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.22321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes73c95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.831266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed No50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1e…75edbacked Yes23c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.51764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+93.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x43f8…2903backed Yes63c54.36$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.53336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5130837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No52c37.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.625528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc85…4d43backed Yes54c27.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes67c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.264748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.