Fifa International · resolved market
Will Brazil beat Argentina?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa49b46459e36981d5e4ebe6445aa98aba3be1451990cb8e44c8bf1905e9c0cb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 27c | 11,100$3,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,005 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 29c | 10,201$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 71c | 8,184$5,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,359.51 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 71c | 7,582$5,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.99 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 73c | 6,740$4,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.31 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…410ebacked Yes | 29c | 3,448$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2d…673fbacked No | 74c | 2,691$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 29c | 2,468$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 29c | 1,729$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.41 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…4873backed Yes | 30c | 1,690$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 1,464$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.86 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 70c | 1,415$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked No | 71c | 1,365$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 69c | 1,333$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.61 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 72c | 629.72$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 513.78$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…9973backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 25c | 231.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…6ab0backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…6fe4backed Yes | 27c | 190$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 71c | 167$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -8.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed Yes | 28c | 144.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 76c | 131.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 26c | 111$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0560…d77dbacked No | 67c | 104.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 72c | 101$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f65…fd4abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61cf…3c52backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…07c0backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 74c | 68.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…1240backed No | 73c | 65.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…2ee8backed Yes | 28c | 53.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 123 | 27.6%34 W · 89 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…4bf8backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…fbb8backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 464 | 53.2%247 W · 217 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brazil beat Argentina?this page
- Will Argentina beat Brazil?Yes won
- Will Argentina vs. Brazil end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.