TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Elon out of Trump administration in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$645,572
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$640,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $645,572 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc0b9…cbacbacked No29c51,505$14,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,936.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb7…d83abacked Yes71c51,505$36,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,936.453100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1200…6c6fbacked Yes76c50,897$38,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,215.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac8…4916backed No24c50,887$12,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,212.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…6c1bbacked Yes76c50,804$38,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,192.963100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84b2…620fbacked No24c50,804$12,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,192.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…6b40backed No28c48,715$13,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,640.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5b…c3c0backed Yes72c48,700$35,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,636250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No45c19,445$8,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,805.684259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No28c14,779$4,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,132.6515646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ba…9e00backed No43c12,196$5,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.08650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No39c8,511$3,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,283.683542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No51c8,008$4,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,102.0169634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No56c7,886$4,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4145240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes67c7,490$4,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4929958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c7,399$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8580%0 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes61c6,414$3,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.9899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes62c6,124$3,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,352.833652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x335d…c9c3backed No28c3,680$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.49650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes70c3,664$2,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.3237533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes67c3,612$2,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.3317452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes71c3,455$2,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.113221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes37c3,170$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,005.723935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes72c3,057$2,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.25642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes60c3,000$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,19510056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd189…06f4backed No2c2,621$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.211723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f3…d859backed No45c2,585$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.653948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No37c2,512$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.877943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf111…6be4backed No34c2,102$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.57450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes55c2,069$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.988640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8225…c4a8backed Yes68c2,006$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.381154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Yes72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes78c1,968$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.0941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes56c1,966$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.7118033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No36c1,701$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.7819436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8329…96c2backed Yes65c1,620$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes62c1,563$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.5221935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes36c1,561$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.23221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes77c1,486$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.796526.2%17 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes71c1,445$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.68450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes61c1,413$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.4217633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8465…8e31backed No31c1,335$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes57c1,144$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.174163.4%26 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+57.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2d45…c009backed Yes41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5901100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8741…fd77backed Yes46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed Yes68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3204052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b42…f193backed Yes51c999.99$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4901100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes69c987.46$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.8418746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x26dc…4741backed No29c880$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1767…fd39backed Yes64c845.6$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.6540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186c…5db1backed Yes64c823.64$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked No63c800$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5044339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e95…a0e4backed Yes40c757.5$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.51060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+47.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes68c750$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.54654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Yes71c725$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes72c716.89$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.892157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No14c714$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9611121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d08…3defbacked No58c711.9$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes68c699.99$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2226256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd574…425dbacked Yes75c696.7$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.171369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No15c666$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.911120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86cb…2680backed No41c654.86$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes63c606.92$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.519328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No32c600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19223639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed No10c585$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.755616.1%9 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes50c567.2$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.5839522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes79c562.54$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.545743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14f6…6e92backed Yes37c542.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.11450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc280…de71backed Yes36c527.64$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.192931%9 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No57c516.15$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.564729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No24c514.52$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12037844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x60eb…a6d8backed No12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.4728320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac1…154bbacked No63c500$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.7850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74c8…d1e9backed Yes42c499.59$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes54c472.52$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.253732.4%12 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes77c452.51$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.112025%5 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes47c443.51$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.8516854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No30c434.09$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2319435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes71c420.63$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.19933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e6b…9390backed Yes60c419.98$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.99742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes70c414$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.238820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked No63c400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2523026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x11f6…cce7backed Yes63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1482100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked No43c397.27$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1704332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe645…345abacked No39c388.25$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes43c385.74$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.1955618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c5…923dbacked No27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick31cpaid-89.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2588…dc27backed No57c354.51$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes60c350$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.576246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked Yes64c348.53$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.993959%23 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf09c…383dbacked Yes59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.98475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x633f…3c8abacked No30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes39c321.79$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.6816725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes73c318.71$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.6937740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…37f0backed Yes38c317.5$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked No64c312.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-67.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dbf…ec66backed Yes65c305.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.362339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.