Macro Indicators · resolved market
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d5a6e9dd92f35206aec5ee290d9b33cd2518cd0f1e6ea2403fca399909d098
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $787,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $785,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $787,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aac…1b36backed No | 67c | 103,524$68,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,616.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…9766backed Yes | 23c | 59,616$13,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,769.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…ce1bbacked Yes | 6c | 35,488$2,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…416abacked Yes | 47c | 33,712$15,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,844.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…2a00backed No | 53c | 33,712$17,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,844.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 12c | 30,554$3,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,631.78 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 17,800$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 64c | 17,379$11,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,179.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7e…c200backed Yes | 35c | 16,666$5,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,899.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 35c | 12,651$4,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,455.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 10c | 11,981$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 11,712$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.94 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa472…45aebacked No | 52c | 9,750$5,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,693.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…cf77backed Yes | 21c | 9,573$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 8c | 9,367$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.78 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5098…f59ebacked Yes | 60c | 8,011$4,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,798.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 45c | 7,750$3,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,470 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 27c | 7,047$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.88 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…5e2fbacked No | 28c | 6,291$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,507.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 33c | 6,208$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,140.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…5547backed Yes | 3c | 5,769$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 33c | 5,283$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.62 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 50c | 5,088$2,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 4,687$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 33c | 3,781$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,535.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…d582backed Yes | 5c | 3,473$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 78c | 3,397$2,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 44c | 3,242$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.38 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 4c | 3,120$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…a359backed No | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 35c | 2,707$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 41c | 2,502$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 36c | 2,250$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 2,145$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…4663backed Yes | 2c | 2,085$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 76c | 1,978$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 22c | 1,814$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.86 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 5c | 1,800$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 4c | 1,750$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 3c | 1,655$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 46c | 1,591$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,522$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…ff1dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,412$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 24c | 1,300$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 4c | 1,257$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2279…d2f8backed Yes | 14c | 1,248$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 26c | 1,231$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…79eebacked Yes | 16c | 1,225$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…0a0abacked No | 37c | 1,224$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…269fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb7…5b4bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,192$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 13c | 1,169$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.79 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x493b…763abacked Yes | 4c | 1,153$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes | 27c | 1,098$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 34c | 1,091$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 42c | 1,063$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.93 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 1,040$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.46 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed No | 29c | 1,026$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…7930backed No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…c7d6backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 4c | 988$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 73c | 985$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed Yes | 36c | 950$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 32c | 932.21$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…b363backed Yes | 34c | 900$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c2…0403backed Yes | 16c | 898.57$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…873abacked No | 44c | 890$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…3addbacked No | 69c | 865.22$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…8321backed No | 32c | 790.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 29c | 758.98$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.76 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ce…da52backed Yes | 29c | 700$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 67c | 700$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87dc…2afdbacked Yes | 4c | 683.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 32c | 675.95$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 32c | 662.4$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…5ae4backed Yes | 37c | 648.63$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 45c | 639.26$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…a40abacked Yes | 3c | 625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 70c | 599.11$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ea…33d6backed Yes | 3c | 596.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…7bdabacked No | 33c | 579.47$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1380…f104backed Yes | 2c | 566$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…4ee9backed Yes | 4c | 531.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 518.91$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.37 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…d0abbacked Yes | 4c | 504.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…d472backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…0ebebacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 69c | 493.64$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd9…32d5backed No | 43c | 470$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6620…1836backed Yes | 5c | 462.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cca…a1c3backed Yes | 55c | 456.18$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 449.68$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.73 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…06c5backed No | 66c | 422.24$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 4c | 420$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…689bbacked No | 31c | 403.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…05d0backed Yes | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.5 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 30c | 400$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.