Us Politics · resolved market
Will Vitalik Buterin attend the March 7 Crypto Summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe290205e7ab1b7e83d7f75d96549d8b8a8a9f9e8365572720bc41ff5af676255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x141e…8c87backed No | 77c | 4,748$3,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 5c | 2,900$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51c9…e4a8backed Yes | 39c | 2,801$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 17c | 2,711$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.21 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 67c | 1,896$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.5 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1990…e954backed Yes | 60c | 1,255$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.92 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,071$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 25c | 839.54$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed Yes | 56c | 792.7$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 70c | 742.49$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.27 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 21c | 718.01$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c432backed Yes | 16c | 710.23$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…7a5fbacked Yes | 22c | 675.95$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 75c | 551.96$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 65c | 539$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.91 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 8c | 505$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…9826backed Yes | 23c | 434.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 73c | 403.85$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.37 | 56 | 73.2%41 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 29c | 400$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…3f59backed Yes | 9c | 339.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf3…326bbacked Yes | 13c | 322$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 73c | 313.58$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 23c | 305.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 20c | 252.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 68c | 239.98$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 79c | 226.44$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 225.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…2b2cbacked Yes | 23c | 215.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…bd4ebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf735…6157backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff5…6063backed Yes | 31c | 194.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 68c | 190$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…e7eebacked Yes | 13c | 176.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 72c | 160$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 54c | 148$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 66c | 122.19$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab1f…7203backed Yes | 19c | 107.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5793…2b17backed No | 79c | 100.43$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…4b0fbacked Yes | 30c | 88.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…5e10backed Yes | 29c | 85.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…a400backed Yes | 26c | 76.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…7d71backed Yes | 27c | 73.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…a58dbacked Yes | 21c | 71.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…4322backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…1116backed Yes | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 77c | 44.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 74c | 26.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e52…5535backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…1db8backed Yes | 77c | 20.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…f860backed No | 75c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…f6e5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…1240backed No | 79c | 19.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vitalik Buterin attend the March 7 Crypto Summit?this page
- Will Brad Garlinghouse attend the March 7 Crypto Summit?Yes won
- Will Brian Armstrong attend the March 7 Crypto Summit?Yes won
- Will Charles Hoskinson attend the March 7 Crypto Summit?No won
- Will Michael Saylor attend the March 7 Crypto Summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.