TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump out as President in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,769,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,204,308

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,769,887 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 467 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes4c174,700$6,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,607.66828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes12c156,120$19,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,212.3813540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c126,880$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…1015backed Yes10c102,935$10,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,205.46825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-63.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes9c92,221$8,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,004.523221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c75,324$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.433313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc870…7e48backed Yes5c65,727$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x811c…b5cebacked Yes1c50,750$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a3…9e5cbacked Yes2c50,205$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked Yes7c46,278$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,093.9460%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79b2…4874backed Yes1c44,154$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.47119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-87.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Yes3c38,672$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd41f…597fbacked Yes1c37,967$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes2c37,905$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.855614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06eb…b2e7backed Yes3c30,029$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes10c29,244$2,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.362425%6 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5c4…30a7backed Yes1c25,021$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d34…bbffbacked Yes1c23,452$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c1f…448fbacked Yes5c20,072$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-57.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6dd…0baabacked Yes5c19,907$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a66…9bc0backed Yes6c19,051$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.3380%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4e…0a23backed Yes0c18,702$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ef2…f098backed Yes5c18,060$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc14b…0d90backed Yes7c16,621$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes9c16,480$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.222437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8400…98a3backed Yes8c16,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes5c15,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+54.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes3c13,961$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.551827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1be9…47e1backed Yes1c12,353$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd17…9bfbbacked Yes0c12,155$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.55616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1a…4343backed Yes1c11,525$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4ef…5b04backed Yes1c11,476$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5be9…9106backed Yes7c11,437$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-75.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes3c11,430$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.895916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x74fc…27a6backed Yes10c11,430$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0932…80a4backed Yes1c11,221$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes3c11,077$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.144814.6%7 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed Yes3c10,783$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.62911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-77.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e5…13febacked Yes4c10,754$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-77.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd1d…299bbacked Yes4c10,716$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x113a…89c0backed Yes8c10,500$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f1d…830fbacked Yes11c10,467$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4631…fd9dbacked Yes10c10,011$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Yes8c10,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a0f…ba1bbacked Yes1c9,910$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bfa…339ebacked Yes6c9,675$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1f…ee2ebacked Yes1c9,644$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes11c9,467$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.722825%7 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5018…398bbacked Yes7c9,444$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9a7…57a0backed Yes6c8,697$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc2…ce94backed Yes1c8,400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00fd…a154backed Yes6c8,395$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.38911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-78.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d35…586abacked Yes6c8,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf20…f904backed Yes3c8,286$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.1580%0 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c21…2a53backed Yes13c8,075$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd88b…d4e3backed Yes7c8,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d2…8731backed Yes4c8,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick16cpaid+334.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f18…5515backed Yes1c7,788$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c7,447$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9611010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c7,358$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.0412910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c7,165$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.15490%0 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdf…248ebacked Yes0c7,088$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Yes7c7,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes6c6,788$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.364940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes1c6,664$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362931%9 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefcc…7c77backed Yes1c6,632$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf877…803ebacked Yes5c6,516$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x248d…a0e9backed Yes3c6,434$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa836…a03ebacked Yes0c6,305$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf861…681fbacked Yes5c6,289$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.131421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick36cpaid+30.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef7d…5e3fbacked Yes8c6,200$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff2b…b73abacked Yes2c6,194$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Yes1c6,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes5c5,966$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.96728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+115.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes9c5,962$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.974320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x052e…b9b7backed Yes2c5,924$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe164…340bbacked Yes0c5,850$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4450%2 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+902.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x321a…0489backed Yes6c5,833$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf504…9ac1backed Yes9c5,556$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a6e…508cbacked Yes8c5,500$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb8…c0e9backed Yes3c5,483$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c91…851fbacked Yes3c5,314$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e15…fa36backed Yes2c5,289$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9016…e132backed Yes0c5,170$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.03425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes5c5,105$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.2299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5634…c208backed Yes6c5,047$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb626…2138backed Yes1c5,021$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.960%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Yes4c5,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1cc…e2ebbacked Yes6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdef…f9d1backed Yes6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5659…5d66backed Yes6c5,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+65.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ec…da36backed Yes2c4,941$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6594…21e0backed Yes8c4,722$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes5c4,640$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.194318.6%8 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes0c4,629$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.76333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes5c4,534$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.7514624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes1c4,365$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.37277.4%2 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes3c4,307$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.752222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c4,196$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.99419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.