Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f89efd581ed122e135489834d6b90c2daaae0ec52a4cf95686c8e1e77b223da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7382…dafcbacked Yes | 26c | 10,002$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa496…6b77backed No | 74c | 10,002$7,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…7d1fbacked No | 74c | 9,980$7,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,594.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…d73cbacked Yes | 26c | 9,977$2,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d56…c0d8backed No | 74c | 9,972$7,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,592.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc066…672dbacked Yes | 26c | 9,958$2,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,588.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 25c | 1,475$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.55 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…dd66backed No | 74c | 947$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…ccb0backed Yes | 26c | 947$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed No | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…0578backed Yes | 26c | 439.54$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 26c | 379.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 28c | 377.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…8ce7backed No | 72c | 355.84$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…4dc6backed No | 75c | 353.33$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…5f9dbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 11c | 247.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 27c | 224.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x487f…30babacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d9…ed60backed No | 73c | 149.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 27c | 148$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 135.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7592…b5cbbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…20abbacked Yes | 18c | 131.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 73c | 127.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 123.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 73c | 119.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…4594backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 25c | 88.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8915…f275backed Yes | 27c | 77.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 27c | 75.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51c…f64fbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…9700backed Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Yes | 27c | 51.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 51.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 27c | 42.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…3cdbbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83da…41f7backed No | 74c | 38.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…1240backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 73c | 29.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-16?Yes won
- Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.