AI · resolved market
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbebc3a48cb63435373073f7365eb5359fb05904ae0d1630d40694a472c8d1f7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb431…0c91backed Yes | 23c | 9,963$2,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed Yes | 13c | 9,301$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 11c | 8,872$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.16 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,805$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 1c | 4,050$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…a317backed Yes | 21c | 3,986$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aeb…06f8backed No | 76c | 3,953$2,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…6374backed No | 79c | 3,900$3,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 9c | 3,189$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…063fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,491$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.71 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c5…b393backed Yes | 12c | 2,440$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,379$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 1c | 1,350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f42…d8fdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,118$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 1c | 1,080$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 23c | 1,021$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.28 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 1,010$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.64 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 2c | 990$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 1c | 810$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed No | 75c | 746$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 1c | 720$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfb…fac1backed Yes | 2c | 711.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 79c | 705.74$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.18 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 80c | 677$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…b6b5backed Yes | 22c | 673.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 14c | 602.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 12c | 600$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041e…8d9bbacked No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9717…8192backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc529…4f2cbacked No | 73c | 499.97$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b4…a888backed Yes | 5c | 488.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…e775backed Yes | 10c | 481.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15a…ea08backed Yes | 21c | 450$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…0df1backed No | 79c | 450$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…c4a2backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 74c | 434.57$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.18 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d9…b173backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…32ccbacked Yes | 6c | 390.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed No | 78c | 388.68$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5df…391fbacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 17c | 359.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7d…a15cbacked Yes | 22c | 352.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a79…8e9abacked Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8819…ca2bbacked Yes | 5c | 333$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 7c | 320.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…f6e8backed Yes | 9c | 318.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…20c5backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb8…3b9fbacked Yes | 14c | 308.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…73fcbacked Yes | 18c | 307.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…1592backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 76c | 290$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc434…7003backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 31cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…c003backed No | 77c | 260.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…a4eebacked Yes | 26c | 229.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…8b0dbacked Yes | 14c | 220$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c2…6de5backed Yes | 10c | 219.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 74c | 210.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 208.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…a524backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 14c | 196.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 26c | 193.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb6…f162backed Yes | 14c | 185.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 10c | 153.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…b6f2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…3864backed Yes | 26c | 124.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 122.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked No | 73c | 110.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 77c | 102$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…adbfbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc823…6220backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…47debacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 60.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…aa46backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +55%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd68…5d4dbacked No | 75c | 49.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…6777backed Yes | 26c | 48.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…2ee3backed Yes | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a9…5baebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc78…b55bbacked No | 76c | 32.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +33%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…eca5backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 63c | 22.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.