Movies · resolved market
"Sinners" Rotten Tomatoes score >95?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b6ebe10abee7a970750405e01d1e6f9002da3d7deed7c9298196907cdebcc17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 39c | 1,032$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.07 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 11c | 1,004$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 58c | 596$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.94 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 69c | 411.98$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 403.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 20c | 345.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 38c | 325.78$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 13c | 274.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…e310backed No | 29c | 250$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 205.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 28c | 193.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 76c | 175.04$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 71c | 173.57$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 14c | 159.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 70c | 156$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed No | 15c | 148$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 13c | 133$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 19c | 122$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…f46dbacked No | 18c | 112.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 14c | 109.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 64c | 103.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 12c | 97.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa309…0f3ebacked No | 30c | 88.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 74c | 81.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 73c | 77.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 75c | 75.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 65c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 56c | 73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9456…75b7backed No | 26c | 50.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c691backed No | 28c | 44.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Yes | 77c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.