China Taiwan · resolved market
China-EU trade deal before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ed7c44720550ccd5bdf6a087a2c405865d05a4b126f6db45545127fd7b3a7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 78c | 3,755$2,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9261…83d4backed Yes | 20c | 2,679$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed Yes | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,682$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,651$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 21c | 1,450$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 1,428$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.95 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…012dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,383$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 8c | 1,005$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 13c | 948.18$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 7c | 947.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed Yes | 10c | 820.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 11c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 19c | 499.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 22c | 460$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 77c | 459.98$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 447.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487c…7795backed Yes | 22c | 423.12$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 11c | 400$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101b…a76bbacked Yes | 20c | 315.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 20c | 275$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked Yes | 5c | 264.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…8bebbacked Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…fba0backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…04adbacked Yes | 21c | 220.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…00fdbacked Yes | 19c | 207.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…45a1backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…273bbacked Yes | 7c | 196.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +793.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…80c9backed Yes | 7c | 184.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 24c | 172.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…ced9backed Yes | 13c | 172.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 76c | 162$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 160.2$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…e0ebbacked No | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 12c | 118.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 79c | 114.23$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…4967backed No | 80c | 113.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 13c | 101$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +344%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 94.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a08…d192backed Yes | 37c | 92.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed No | 76c | 88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ba50backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 75c | 67.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ed…5707backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 46.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…8457backed Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 24c | 45.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…28b0backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.