Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbee82c5cb23ff00c4201df30a39c0789770ae487b0b1b017061b8368db9cb75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Up | 52c | 1,256$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.35 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Up | 36c | 596.67$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.4 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 37c | 399.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Down | 35c | 394.83$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Down | 41c | 373.03$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.57 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Down | 14c | 350.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Down | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Up | 41c | 291.24$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.78 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Down | 52c | 252.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 25c | 244.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…2d73backed Down | 24c | 229.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…9ae3backed Down | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Down | 64c | 180$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 18c | 165.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Down | 9c | 156.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Down | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Up | 43c | 148.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked Up | 36c | 101.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Up | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Up | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed Down | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…02ffbacked Down | 61c | 92.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba1…822cbacked Down | 61c | 90.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Down | 58c | 86.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Down | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…5c10backed Down | 61c | 59.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…8d45backed Up | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2d…3c38backed Down | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Down | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc8…0b6cbacked Down | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…054cbacked Down | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee7d…4eebbacked Up | 78c | 40.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Down | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Up | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…784abacked Down | 61c | 39.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Down | 59c | 36.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bc…a7ecbacked Up | 29c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…8988backed Down | 61c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…3de5backed Down | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…bc00backed Down | 58c | 19.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Down | 68c | 18.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.