TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

DeepSeek removed from App Store before March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$127,580
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,639

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,580 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes9c9,490$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes5c8,655$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79e5…dcc9backed Yes5c5,912$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.84933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+167.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7093…ffd8backed Yes2c5,127$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes8c4,368$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.638220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes3c4,113$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c3,999$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.981051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e2…4459backed Yes1c3,492$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes14c3,487$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.14837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes6c2,440$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.977219.4%14 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes12c2,000$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.81323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…986fbacked Yes8c1,912$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ab…ecf7backed Yes9c1,271$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1766…5705backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74b5…e2ffbacked Yes5c1,100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.05520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+96.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes7c812.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.761020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes11c812$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.94837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fac…574ebacked Yes12c802.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4643…26c9backed Yes14c784.79$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed Yes2c773.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.47633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes7c677.08$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.41816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-56.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe5d…278abacked Yes13c532.75$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes4c507.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.613010%3 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes6c485.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-91.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bd1…cf8dbacked Yes3c453.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+236.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92a3…4a7dbacked Yes9c400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes7c397.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.01695.8%4 W · 65 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1399…38d9backed Yes12c353.83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x771a…096fbacked Yes9c346.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb674…1493backed Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x982b…b119backed Yes8c257$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744a…64f4backed Yes4c234.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes6c230.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.911225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ae…8cd9backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x279d…1f27backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1650%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked Yes7c159.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-50.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf386…1158backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8e…794abacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c21…bd2fbacked Yes9c118$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdccc…3ac3backed Yes9c112.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5404…39cfbacked Yes10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes13c96.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-78.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.