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Us Politics · resolved market

Will more than 2.8 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day by November 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$98,583
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,339

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,583 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe738…df65backed Yes32c25,327$8,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,063.171560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes38c4,010$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.321723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No79c3,677$2,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.793663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked No73c3,170$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.581850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes26c3,139$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.9333313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9722…5304backed No67c2,477$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No65c2,236$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.3714940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No60c2,100$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83132626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked Yes32c1,986$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes31c1,967$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.4510630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7f…3bf2backed No64c1,626$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No63c1,456$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.3819236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef5…5380backed Yes43c1,275$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da0…73e2backed No79c1,258$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5c…5226backed No75c1,198$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.051741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5dc…7cf2backed No65c1,121$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb7b…160dbacked No59c1,019$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.31650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+34.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed No68c1,018$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.461855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+53.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed No78c1,008$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8e3…5061backed No62c1,004$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.81862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes21c998.98$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.791127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-58.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23d0…d98bbacked Yes27c894.6$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No70c799.99$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd4b7…3bd1backed No59c750.45$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e92…cb85backed No65c750$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Yes28c727.02$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.07812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-80.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes19c700$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1332931%9 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed No69c639$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.524654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes29c624.2$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9216544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes31c624$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.442454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes20c600$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203831.6%12 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+157.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd834…e011backed Yes28c600$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes30c592.51$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.178817%15 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1854030%12 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes40c487.72$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.092810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes32c474.5$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8413943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c9…51cfbacked Yes32c469.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x057d…4d1fbacked No72c451.57$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.461428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-59.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed No60c431.15$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.151947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b57…02abbacked Yes47c410.07$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes25c402.91$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.188419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No71c400$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4623543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8005…abc0backed No63c399.99$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed No72c393.23$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.815343.4%23 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed No56c385.38$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.572937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…cfadbacked No64c377.82$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.57850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes34c354.58$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No68c346.88$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.355339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8309…62b1backed Yes29c346.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed No68c343.99$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.481643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked No72c332.47$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.472030%6 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes39c316.62$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72bd…194cbacked Yes32c314.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No69c311.76$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.651163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5e…43f3backed No79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf93…bdc8backed No70c285.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.583148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes37c273.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes35c257.89$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.85837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No69c254.99$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.353568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No69c253.94$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.723652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4f…c055backed No75c251.62$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cee…a307backed Yes29c250$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.580%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c48…327abacked No74c235.25$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.59650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0a3…5a2fbacked No69c230$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.593100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+70.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed No61c226.52$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.145129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc58…1dffbacked No60c223.93$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.864100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+131%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe679…9338backed No70c215.16$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+773.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92eb…986abacked No45c210.53$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.791560%9 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bfa…5704backed No66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+71.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe701…942ebacked No69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+61.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf936…f310backed Yes45c200$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.271822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-8.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846241.9%26 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…2312backed No69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.82922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5e4…eff6backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+39.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No55c199.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9012545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes15c195.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.041,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No59c192$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.724226.2%11 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4927…3a5ebacked No55c181.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes30c180$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.182839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No63c179.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bb9…1f8fbacked No65c176.02$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.02728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9c…fab1backed No74c173.81$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.81666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes31c170$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.74641.3%19 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked No65c163.53$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.244535.6%16 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbc57…753bbacked No67c157.44$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b54…bac5backed No63c150$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa712…bcddbacked Yes34c148.6$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.521040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac4…a55dbacked No71c141.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb911…a649backed No67c139.99$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.72326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed Yes36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507672.4%55 W · 21 L+14.7wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xf386…1158backed No75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.333171%22 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8eb…da8abacked No73c130$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa234…f7ebbacked No62c125.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.62757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+52.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed No52c125.48$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7b…1790backed No68c125.23$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.72862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf66c…4fafbacked No69c115.94$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c115.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x154f…9a12backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.