TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3ac4…a55d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Tennis at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-60.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Tennis — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Next Gen ATP Finals, Group B: Dino Prizmic vs Nishesh Basavareddybacked Prizmic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$252
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Sheltonbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+58.7%+$58.73
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublikbacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
US Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Taylor Townsendbacked Townsend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$895Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$895
US Open: Alexander Zverev vs Felix Auger Aliassimebacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$262
US Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Flavio Cobollibacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$834Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+39.4%+$328.68
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zhengbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$324
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jack Draper backed Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$84.32
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs. Mirra Andreevabacked Andreeva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+78.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+31.6%+$54.32
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+38%+$341.55
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valencia CF win on 2025-12-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+27.7%+$69.25
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+29.1%+$19.18
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+63.9%+$123.39
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$107
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$120
Israel military response against Iran today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$46.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+423.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+423.4%+$245.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will more than 2.8 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day by November 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+41.3%+$41.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+40.8%+$21.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Denmark win on 2025-11-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+29.9%+$11.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$22.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jazz vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$196.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$568Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$568
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.