Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aa0980b1d590fe0278338815f6b9240ffd32cf5fbdaa1ad8fbe44014411da8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Bublik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $885,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,073,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $885,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc56f…75efbacked Bublik | 11c | 131,004$14,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,119.72 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Bublik | 11c | 100,000$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,000 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Bublik | 10c | 55,879$5,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,587.9 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Bublik | 10c | 30,766$3,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,068.96 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…b5a8backed Bublik | 10c | 27,751$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900.16 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Bublik | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bublik | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Bublik | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Bublik | 1c | 10,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Bublik | 10c | 9,040$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.6 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Bublik | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Bublik | 11c | 4,090$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.89 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Bublik | 10c | 3,997$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.65 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Bublik | 10c | 3,364$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Bublik | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Bublik | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Bublik | 11c | 2,727$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Bublik | 9c | 2,600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…747abacked Bublik | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed Bublik | 10c | 2,050$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…49eabacked Bublik | 11c | 2,045$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Bublik | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ce…28b1backed Bublik | 11c | 1,855$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb2…6b94backed Bublik | 11c | 1,809$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Bublik | 11c | 1,536$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.68 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a55dbacked Bublik | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Bublik | 11c | 1,500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Bublik | 10c | 1,440$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.03 | 149 | 33.6%50 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Bublik | 12c | 1,317$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…f4f2backed Bublik | 10c | 1,120$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dae…c996backed Bublik | 11c | 1,091$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Bublik | 11c | 1,042$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.62 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Bublik | 11c | 1,018$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Bublik | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Bublik | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Bublik | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…6c84backed Bublik | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Bublik | 5c | 980$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Bublik | 11c | 878.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bublik | 13c | 770.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bublik | 8c | 739$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Bublik | 11c | 636.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…e6c5backed Bublik | 12c | 621.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 178 | 18%32 W · 146 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Bublik | 9c | 593.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…0d19backed Bublik | 11c | 550$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 428 | 39.7%170 W · 258 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9c…3421backed Bublik | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d5…10d3backed Bublik | 11c | 467$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Bublik | 11c | 460.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Bublik | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 155 | 31.6%49 W · 106 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…e7aabacked Bublik | 3c | 377.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Bublik | 11c | 352.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa507…2468backed Bublik | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…6b0bbacked Bublik | 9c | 349$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked Bublik | 11c | 345.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +62%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…0e37backed Bublik | 10c | 343$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…776cbacked Bublik | 10c | 340$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Bublik | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +84%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Bublik | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Bublik | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…52bdbacked Bublik | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Bublik | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…e7bebacked Bublik | 12c | 198.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Bublik | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 32cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…f2debacked Bublik | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Bublik | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Bublik | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed Bublik | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Bublik | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2906…5ae8backed Bublik | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.