Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Flavio Cobolli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd41bb3ebae1d5a1511d0d75f637fff2b63a705472ea21ab760f71ad75eca93f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Musetti, Cobolli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Musetti | 72c | 13,243$9,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,707.99 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cobolli | 28c | 12,000$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,360 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…75efbacked Cobolli | 32c | 6,654$2,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,097.27 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Musetti | 68c | 2,558$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.75 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Musetti | 72c | 2,209$1,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.57 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cobolli | 4c | 1,550$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Musetti | 69c | 1,522$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.82 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…87c1backed Musetti | 75c | 1,480$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.94 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Cobolli | 27c | 1,222$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.63 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a55dbacked Musetti | 72c | 1,163$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Musetti | 79c | 1,000$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.3 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked Cobolli | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cobolli | 28c | 974.84$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.96 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Cobolli | 13c | 769.38$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Cobolli | 33c | 700$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Cobolli | 28c | 578.68$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.24 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cobolli | 14c | 537.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Musetti | 73c | 495.08$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.81 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Cobolli | 28c | 490.11$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.23 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…e5f7backed Musetti | 75c | 400.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Cobolli | 18c | 399$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Cobolli | 10c | 350$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Cobolli | 15c | 245$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cobolli | 27c | 234.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Cobolli | 32c | 234.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Cobolli | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Cobolli | 20c | 171.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd20…d348backed Musetti | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Cobolli | 32c | 118.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Cobolli | 18c | 112.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Musetti | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Musetti | 71c | 101.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Cobolli | 28c | 89.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…4d8ebacked Musetti | 73c | 79.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Musetti | 71c | 70.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d40…b4ecbacked Cobolli | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Musetti | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…9c10backed Musetti | 72c | 55.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Cobolli | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…6be0backed Cobolli | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Musetti | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Musetti | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.