TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,471

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,523 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb84b…95b1backed No14c1,595$230 inLost-$230.29120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes63c988.88$624 inWon+$365.093655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac49…67c4backed Yes76c500$378 inWon+$121.84425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-66.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No11c424.12$48 inLost-$47.71258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb5…8330backed No52c301.6$156 inLost-$155.752010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes23c274.61$63 inWon+$211.454751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x77e5…ec41backed Yes28c199.98$56 inWon+$143.992556%14 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+109.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed Yes74c198$147 inWon+$50.782576%19 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6837…15e1backed Yes47c183.36$86 inWon+$97.1811637.1%43 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1fab…4ce9backed Yes77c168$129 inWon+$39.21714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed Yes75c133.33$100 inWon+$33.33580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6660…172bbacked Yes26c125.79$33 inWon+$93.22540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…49e7backed Yes39c120$46 inWon+$73.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+158.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No21c111.08$24 inLost-$23.711,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes25c107.62$27 inWon+$80.181338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfc…173ebacked Yes27c99.97$27 inWon+$72.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No24c80.87$19 inLost-$19.181,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No24c77.55$18 inLost-$18.435757.9%33 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4df7…522dbacked No16c76.36$12 inLost-$12.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac4…a55dbacked Yes73c68.87$50 inWon+$18.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes16c65$10 inWon+$54.610827.8%30 W · 78 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed Yes71c60$43 inWon+$17.41338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38fc…c078backed Yes67c53.87$36 inWon+$18.033256.3%18 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No46c40$18 inLost-$18.24346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6b…6266backed Yes80c38.34$30 inWon+$7.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbdf…1191backed Yes77c21.83$17 inWon+$5.09250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.