Music · resolved market
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5744751b69e0df000ae5dba6ca7896353a94b0de132c8a761fceec50fb375e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 11c | 1,273$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.74 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 9c | 1,206$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.43 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…8cf0backed Yes | 45c | 567.11$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.64 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 40c | 479.77$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 10c | 452.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 19c | 404.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…7e47backed Yes | 24c | 334.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +319.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 5c | 316.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 12c | 307.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.06 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a55dbacked Yes | 19c | 303.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +423.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 19c | 252.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 7c | 244.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…1c78backed Yes | 79c | 164.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 157.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0392…9006backed Yes | 76c | 137.25$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 12c | 131.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.73 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef8…974bbacked Yes | 8c | 128.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,182.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 19c | 115.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…a5d1backed Yes | 73c | 98.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked No | 78c | 81.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed Yes | 39c | 71.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…c6bfbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 17c | 62.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 28c | 48.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…9781backed No | 75c | 41.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 69c | 39.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…ae43backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will Last Christmas - Wham! be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.