Music · resolved market
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4b952e98e679bcaa2c72813833c2985acd95c2da41611dc5cc199e05e02d5a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,931$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.9 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 4c | 1,001$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes | 75c | 840$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 68c | 734.4$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 28c | 592.63$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.66 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 500.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 10c | 414.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.52 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed No | 11c | 220.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 5c | 201.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…1c78backed Yes | 79c | 194.08$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 10c | 192.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.64 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 21c | 176.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5854…bcfebacked No | 9c | 155.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 27c | 142.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef7…fba9backed No | 11c | 140$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f3…af65backed No | 9c | 128.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 9c | 118.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 29c | 108.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed No | 14c | 100.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…d188backed Yes | 64c | 81.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9138backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98e…6bd2backed Yes | 72c | 69.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03d9…bd72backed Yes | 76c | 32.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…a94fbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf816…a7b1backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will Last Christmas - Wham! be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.