Tennis · resolved market
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jack Draper
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b6aec93fd0d0f2b8b7fd120dd8cdad6de61822e1519c080ed0fc14464961b64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Draper
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Draper | 28c | 1,236$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.97 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Alcaraz | 71c | 1,000$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a0…7694backed Alcaraz | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0e…b3f3backed Draper | 29c | 995$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Draper | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Draper | 21c | 827.42$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.12 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Alcaraz | 73c | 639.58$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.69 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Draper | 19c | 415$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Draper | 32c | 341.41$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Alcaraz | 70c | 340$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Draper | 30c | 340$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a55dbacked Alcaraz | 74c | 324.32$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Draper | 30c | 300$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Draper | 29c | 156.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Alcaraz | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Alcaraz | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Alcaraz | 71c | 123.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb39…ed7abacked Alcaraz | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Alcaraz | 70c | 93.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Alcaraz | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Alcaraz | 73c | 73.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3e…9c71backed Draper | 16c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Alcaraz | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…7c5abacked Draper | 31c | 48.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Draper | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Alcaraz | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Alcaraz | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Alcaraz | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Alcaraz | 73c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.