La Liga · resolved market
Will Valencia CF win on 2025-12-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fc4fa607cdf770c63455992c0886f223c361e11fa68d1cc01f9ce95c5d2568a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 42c | 479.88$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.22 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a55dbacked No | 78c | 319.25$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 228.37$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 26c | 179.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed No | 69c | 172.45$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 39c | 151.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 42c | 149.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 127 | 22.8%29 W · 98 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Yes | 58c | 140$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 61c | 126.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked Yes | 31c | 120.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 56c | 115$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 45c | 112.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 40c | 111.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 110.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 746 | 57.4%428 W · 318 L | +22.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…0415backed Yes | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…647abacked Yes | 73c | 82.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…b34bbacked Yes | 61c | 82.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…28a5backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 42c | 74.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…6e7ebacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Yes | 28c | 67.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Yes | 29c | 66.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…152bbacked No | 41c | 45.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 40c | 45.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 170 | 36.5%62 W · 108 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 70c | 41.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 60c | 40.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…5264backed Yes | 60c | 40.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 45c | 36.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Yes | 60c | 33.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…8398backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Yes | 60c | 33.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 49c | 33.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…319fbacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Valencia CF win on 2025-12-04?this page
- Will FC Cartagena vs. Valencia CF end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Cartagena win on 2025-12-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.