World Politics · resolved market
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ac5d865c1cc860aca1b60b1d2fcfed6e205c2e6853458fed2744f03957b0ea3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $346,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $372,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $346,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c2e…a7b0backed No | 46c | 32,768$15,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,694.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…d28cbacked Yes | 54c | 32,768$17,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,694.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…71b9backed No | 48c | 31,147$14,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,196.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…1975backed Yes | 52c | 31,147$16,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,196.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…670fbacked Yes | 52c | 26,027$13,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,534.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…1b5cbacked No | 48c | 26,027$12,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,534.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…de48backed Yes | 47c | 4,719$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 0c | 4,248$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 9c | 2,973$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,693.61 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…f388backed Yes | 1c | 2,724$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 51c | 2,489$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 36c | 2,027$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.25 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…a3dfbacked Yes | 47c | 1,674$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 61c | 1,613$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.02 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 77c | 1,250$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.4 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 1,094$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.78 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457a…44debacked No | 11c | 1,082$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.52 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 37c | 1,071$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.33 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 9c | 1,014$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.4 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 8c | 1,000$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 16c | 988.38$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.07 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 68c | 890.22$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.86 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes | 52c | 774.31$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 18c | 751.7$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.71 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 750$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 11c | 739.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.46 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 47c | 683.53$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.06 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 48c | 639.43$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.32 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…561ebacked Yes | 50c | 624.66$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 13c | 606.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.77 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c2…e206backed Yes | 55c | 597.68$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 4c | 565.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.53 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 20c | 521.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.52 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…b230backed Yes | 8c | 512.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 58c | 499.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59c…9b66backed No | 10c | 481.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 426.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.93 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed No | 12c | 426.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.86 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 57c | 424.33$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.93 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 52c | 416.24$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.87 | 134 | 13.4%18 W · 116 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…26c8backed Yes | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 13c | 399.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.99 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 390.1$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.57 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…c545backed Yes | 44c | 384.72$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed No | 10c | 339.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0994…2668backed Yes | 54c | 329.31$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.92 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -74%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e64…9b93backed Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0b…e18dbacked Yes | 45c | 290.63$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f14…026ebacked Yes | 69c | 290.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes | 69c | 290.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.50per pick | 63cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…90e3backed Yes | 47c | 268.17$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c8…859dbacked Yes | 76c | 263.66$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…cfddbacked Yes | 64c | 257.54$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…9cbebacked Yes | 54c | 253.35$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 48c | 252.85$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 10c | 248.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.48 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed No | 14c | 221.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +239.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes | 44c | 221.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cc…e8c0backed Yes | 68c | 219.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 12c | 214.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.95 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a55dbacked No | 37c | 207.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…68cabacked Yes | 70c | 203.42$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…a49ebacked Yes | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 66cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…172fbacked No | 30c | 202.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 9c | 200.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.31 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf31f…e63dbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 12c | 199.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.98 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked No | 12c | 199.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.94 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 19c | 193.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.56 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 36c | 187.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.53 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 40c | 183.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.86 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 56c | 182$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…4513backed Yes | 57c | 176.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…94acbacked No | 23c | 175.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 61c | 170.04$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…fd6ebacked Yes | 59c | 168.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 13c | 167.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 9c | 166.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.4 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…e164backed Yes | 63c | 158.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3289…4538backed No | 32c | 155.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +211.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…ea97backed Yes | 59c | 153.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc668…4f06backed Yes | 78c | 152.17$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…2a10backed Yes | 75c | 147$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…abfabacked Yes | 74c | 135.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…46e6backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554c…7156backed No | 15c | 134.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 9c | 132.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a81…2c04backed Yes | 77c | 129.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…459dbacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…39adbacked Yes | 79c | 126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee8…3352backed Yes | 40c | 124.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…d7efbacked No | 16c | 121.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +509.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…0494backed Yes | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 11c | 112.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff62…9dc1backed Yes | 67c | 111.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 75c | 108.24$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +123%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 16c | 105.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?this page
- Will Dr Viliami Uasike Latu be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?No won
- Will Etuate Lavulavu be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?No won
- Will Semisi Sika be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?No won
- Will Siaosi Pōhiva be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?No won
- Will Siaosi Sovaleni be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.