World Politics · resolved market
Will Siaosi Sovaleni be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d7cbcff21f38814db9aa16a73e80a6a021d820093761f0cc86abde8db912e1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 3c | 1,974$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 17c | 1,368$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.07 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,316$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…2a6bbacked Yes | 12c | 964.02$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…c545backed Yes | 23c | 931.79$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes | 32c | 666$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 80c | 489$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…de48backed Yes | 48c | 420.87$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19c2…e206backed Yes | 35c | 300.62$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 8c | 290$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 246.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 230.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…d8a4backed Yes | 17c | 228.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 134 | 13.4%18 W · 116 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 80c | 196$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 75c | 166$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 67c | 118.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…668cbacked Yes | 36c | 111.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…e3c9backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 13c | 99.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes | 14c | 81.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea92…6f4dbacked Yes | 22c | 77.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737f…6cc0backed Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…fe0ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7eb…a668backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 76c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Siaosi Sovaleni be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?this page
- Will Dr Viliami Uasike Latu be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?No won
- Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?No won
- Will Etuate Lavulavu be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?No won
- Will Semisi Sika be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?No won
- Will Siaosi Pōhiva be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.