TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 US Open?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$647,915
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$696,941

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $647,915 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes46c50,412$22,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,457.4111230.4%34 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes73c23,433$17,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,237.9565647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No41c22,036$8,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,925.689137.4%34 W · 57 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Yes66c20,101$13,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,816.361758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc80e…41c8backed Yes72c18,011$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,010.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843d…e617backed No51c15,440$7,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,808.374456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed No35c14,260$4,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,962.593452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No13c8,961$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.4765242.8%279 W · 373 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf70c…72c1backed No30c8,760$2,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,596.52119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes25c7,971$2,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,949.38023.8%19 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04e4…86afbacked Yes61c7,757$4,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,033.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes53c7,566$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,566.4757249.5%283 W · 289 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked No47c7,477$3,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,537.443441.2%14 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No55c7,267$4,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,025.668052.5%42 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed No26c7,141$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.5810845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes39c6,945$2,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,243.7345737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No46c6,039$2,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,785.5522344.8%100 W · 123 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No54c5,432$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,935.584353.5%23 W · 20 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes78c5,155$4,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.7510138.6%39 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yes64c5,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8005950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes19c4,580$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,687.281,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe162…8a81backed Yes69c4,373$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb511…dedfbacked Yes44c4,250$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+44.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed No73c4,015$2,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,928.562360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+48.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed No48c4,000$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9042825%7 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc4…a880backed Yes26c4,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9606633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked No33c3,711$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.743458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes48c3,500$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed No32c2,983$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.243441.2%14 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Yes9c2,860$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.62751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+41.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Yes26c2,500$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,85087251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e3…3464backed Yes24c2,432$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+60.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes23c2,284$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,753.8552750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No67c2,253$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.68854.5%48 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed No36c2,189$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes32c2,152$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.581225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda7…fc55backed Yes45c2,087$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.921442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked No34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6801735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d4d…675fbacked Yes66c1,904$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.24771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Yes41c1,800$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.88862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+37.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked No18c1,784$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.14812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-76%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Yes57c1,567$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.533336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Yes65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed No76c1,500$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.7216140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No35c1,500$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5309546.3%44 W · 51 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x119e…2129backed Yes64c1,483$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcb5d…88aebacked Yes62c1,452$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.611040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes19c1,262$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed No38c1,202$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.9932141.1%132 W · 189 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed Yes40c1,192$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.071729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-23.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed No72c1,138$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.996147.5%29 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No71c1,103$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78314345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9386…fdfebacked Yes67c1,096$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.613100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+85.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0c3…0230backed Yes65c1,069$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.421833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No46c1,067$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.7714028.6%40 W · 100 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No27c1,041$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.2111,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No71c1,030$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.9228141.6%117 W · 164 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4487…08c6backed Yes51c1,029$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.4112737.8%48 W · 79 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c47…2826backed Yes65c1,013$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39022623.9%54 W · 172 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed Yes24c1,000$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7602231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe65f…a749backed Yes24c1,000$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7603638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd4a…048ebacked No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes29c1,000$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.51540%6 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-25.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Yes64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3603158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x858e…6febbacked No20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes28c999.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.994030%12 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff1…372dbacked Yes70c960.94$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.23475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b6d…ece3backed Yes37c945.36$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.6850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa962…8978backed Yes65c923.08$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+88%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ea5…b5cbbacked Yes65c900$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes38c814.71$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.828241.5%34 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes29c800$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.21346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes48c763.37$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.435639.3%22 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+145.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes36c717.57$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.2428828.5%82 W · 206 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Yes33c710.85$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.02837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x837b…e8bebacked Yes45c677.36$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.22742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No77c648.05$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4992263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa318…0c71backed Yes24c647.49$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.822133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Yes50c630.91$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.461450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed No35c627.48$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.629245.7%42 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes69c622.23$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.8638147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No55c619.99$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.343650%18 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked Yes40c576.16$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.6928350.9%144 W · 139 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked No30c573$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.5525244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b02…393ebacked Yes65c569.64$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.871070%7 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+64.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked No76c567$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.92540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed No74c564.98$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.742927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+182.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e4e…62d5backed Yes58c559.7$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.72035%7 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-31.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No35c493.98$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.89850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes26c483.33$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.3311054.5%60 W · 50 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes24c464.92$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.341741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…930abacked Yes23c460$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+88.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No62c451.57$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.851,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3b…4253backed No30c443.86$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.16922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes46c441.26$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.577744.2%34 W · 43 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yes61c429.57$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.789149.5%45 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1b…9876backed Yes65c429.44$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfef7…c9f4backed Yes32c412.43$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.07825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc21…9eb9backed Yes29c404$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2881457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.