TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Naomi Osaka win the 2025 US Open?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,810

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,079 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes12c8,871$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.9945737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c4,989$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.672,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Yes28c2,900$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.326039.2%102 W · 158 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e5…8a64backed Yes10c2,838$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick16cpaid-29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x355a…98a6backed Yes24c2,627$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64018839.9%75 W · 113 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26dc…95c4backed Yes7c2,422$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.952846.4%13 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0c0…b40bbacked Yes19c2,043$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12037540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Yes15c1,793$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.8342839.7%170 W · 258 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No78c1,534$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.0122344.8%100 W · 123 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee05…812fbacked Yes7c1,423$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No73c1,396$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.824353.5%23 W · 20 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes3c1,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Yes24c999.69$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.691450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…abffbacked Yes23c885.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006921.7%15 W · 54 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-46.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No76c785.89$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.447744.2%34 W · 43 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…a111backed Yes25c730.19$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed Yes24c659.29$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.422231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ee…d8e2backed Yes17c590.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…7955backed Yes16c576.31$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes22c499.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11152750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes4c441.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6622037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes8c405.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x383a…ff11backed Yes14c346.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0d…2b92backed Yes26c262.12$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfef7…c9f4backed Yes16c250$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.25825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes15c244$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.98640.7%35 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes18c216.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.943458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e90…b93bbacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c76…ded5backed Yes16c200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85a9…bb66backed Yes26c193.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507170.4%50 W · 21 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x063a…1499backed Yes8c188.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No74c185.47$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5822723.8%54 W · 173 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No75c170.11$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.536863.2%43 W · 25 L+8.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd036…ec4bbacked Yes28c159.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No78c154.4$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.213650%18 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc97b…7f7fbacked Yes30c131.03$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc03…21eabacked Yes17c118.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234940.8%20 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe611…0ae4backed Yes16c96.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154052.5%21 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c5c…7524backed Yes16c94.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+69.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf786…57febacked No78c86$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef23…7fd5backed Yes14c84.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-31.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No78c83.74$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.595639.3%22 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+145.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9009…b96dbacked Yes27c75.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.041,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked No75c51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.85860.3%35 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf12c…5ba6backed Yes27c42.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No73c37.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107850%39 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed No75c29.89$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.474252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No77c25.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.912638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.