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Tennis · resolved market

Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2025 US Open?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,667
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,667 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c4,501$13 inLost-$12.62,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes7c3,783$251 inLost-$250.7229028.3%82 W · 208 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a41…d1fbbacked Yes9c3,336$310 inLost-$310175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-83.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes5c2,400$117 inLost-$11752750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Yes8c2,000$157 inLost-$157.2816140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes5c1,709$84 inLost-$83.631,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes11c906$100 inLost-$1004025%10 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa318…0c71backed Yes8c647.63$52 inLost-$51.812133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes6c585$35 inLost-$35.11010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-69.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf81b…89b1backed Yes7c214.29$15 inLost-$153627.8%10 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes7c200$14 inLost-$14100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes8c199.96$16 inLost-$164628.3%13 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.