AI · resolved market
Will xAI’s Grok 4 lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcd2484b788b8917dfde78690a6fa53ad85b1e8fdce8088000e485b7dd4335b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 4,238$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 2c | 796.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 14c | 412.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a55dbacked Yes | 77c | 410.39$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 26c | 182$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.88 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 10c | 167$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 79c | 157.74$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 123$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee8…1805backed Yes | 64c | 93.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 67c | 93.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 66c | 85.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…a709backed Yes | 67c | 74.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…6622backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…4d9dbacked Yes | 58c | 52.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11cb…2368backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 42.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec55…6870backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 42c | 25.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…8ae5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…3e0fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7128…fa7ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI’s Grok 4 lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?this page
- Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4.5 lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek Chat V3.1 lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Google’s Gemini 3 Pro lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Kimi’s Kimi K2 Thinking lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will OpenAI’s GPT 5.1 win lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Unknown’s Mystery Model lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.