AI · resolved market
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x770298d8f96bac54802d3f39fcbecdec42b725c994c26f5245827e1e78cfc8d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $537,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $565,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $537,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 41c | 56,036$23,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,158.97 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 27c | 26,590$7,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,114.43 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 57c | 22,248$12,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,500.93 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 57c | 19,387$11,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,095.89 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked No | 56c | 19,129$10,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,410.33 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 74c | 17,540$12,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,545.01 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 45c | 12,102$5,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,661.71 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 55c | 8,873$4,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,960.16 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…2caebacked Yes | 20c | 8,837$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,743.28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed Yes | 6c | 8,644$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.09 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…471abacked Yes | 29c | 8,580$2,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,508.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 0c | 7,178$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 35c | 6,255$2,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,171.29 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 31c | 5,522$1,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.65 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 35c | 4,272$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.59 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked No | 36c | 4,215$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 76c | 3,988$3,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.57 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…b564backed Yes | 21c | 3,611$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…e262backed Yes | 71c | 3,526$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 44c | 3,427$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.63 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…202dbacked No | 70c | 3,355$2,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.19 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 39c | 3,344$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,028.13 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…1592backed Yes | 25c | 3,300$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.01 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 20c | 3,250$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.5 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,780$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 49c | 2,675$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.52 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 38c | 2,594$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 40c | 2,583$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.72 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda01…1bcabacked Yes | 46c | 2,324$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 58c | 2,268$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.33 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…1db2backed Yes | 74c | 2,162$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf221…2575backed Yes | 5c | 2,119$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed Yes | 54c | 2,088$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.35 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…5868backed No | 68c | 2,068$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.71 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed Yes | 75c | 2,055$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 23c | 2,022$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 29c | 2,014$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.99 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 39c | 1,688$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.51 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 39c | 1,546$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…558abacked Yes | 36c | 1,517$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +314.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8f…1cb8backed Yes | 23c | 1,482$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 59c | 1,431$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.51 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8980…e702backed Yes | 28c | 1,392$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,385$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f7…befcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,383$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,378$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,364$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 62c | 1,350$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…bca8backed Yes | 59c | 1,345$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…7a9dbacked No | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 1,287$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 72c | 1,261$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 41c | 1,257$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.48 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…df91backed Yes | 41c | 1,239$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf258…e4b0backed No | 45c | 1,234$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.49 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7800…eae9backed Yes | 6c | 1,209$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 21c | 1,200$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,176$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 64c | 1,137$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 1,106$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…45c5backed No | 69c | 1,085$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…fbfdbacked No | 31c | 1,057$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…f7bdbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a2…1247backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 996.38$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.9 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 960.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 79c | 954.22$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 13c | 946.15$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…0d09backed Yes | 63c | 804.4$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 75c | 768.97$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa5…6292backed Yes | 44c | 737.53$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.76 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 37c | 737$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.92 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed Yes | 37c | 718.99$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…2e0bbacked Yes | 6c | 705.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 49c | 701.35$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.19 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 29c | 693.95$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.24 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…0be3backed Yes | 73c | 680.55$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 20c | 679.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.24 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x597e…cd70backed Yes | 75c | 666.11$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 63c | 641.82$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.4 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89ac…5468backed Yes | 79c | 635.91$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fcf1backed Yes | 66c | 624$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 621.92$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed Yes | 5c | 620$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…9253backed Yes | 25c | 602.01$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 5c | 600$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 62c | 599.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes | 60c | 582.56$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…4a78backed Yes | 5c | 539.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 72c | 536.02$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked No | 76c | 532.71$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…554fbacked Yes | 38c | 502$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed No | 53c | 500$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.38 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527f…69a3backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6795…c55dbacked Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 40c | 500$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…d5f9backed Yes | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.