Middle East · resolved market
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4500d7f5d2bdbd77ec002a4b901436f0007ac189e08a254c16a13a5885503e04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 15c | 7,216$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.28 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 21c | 4,700$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.21 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 79c | 4,494$3,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.05 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 3,849$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.47 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 6c | 3,399$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 8c | 2,937$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 10c | 2,650$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.2 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,990$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.37 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 1,786$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.86 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,766$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…f957backed Yes | 2c | 1,534$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,322$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.29 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 2c | 1,278$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 6c | 897.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 23c | 888$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.02 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 25c | 886.75$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 830$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 4c | 810.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d09…0852backed Yes | 2c | 805.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 12c | 778.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 13c | 752.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.96 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 9c | 700.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…955cbacked Yes | 12c | 678.46$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 7c | 667$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 4c | 502.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 497.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…182cbacked Yes | 3c | 490.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 28c | 400$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 6c | 314$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…6866backed Yes | 5c | 302.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f8…6713backed No | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 72c | 276.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…56b5backed Yes | 5c | 247$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 26c | 194.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 13c | 170.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 6c | 160$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 142$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 8c | 131$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed Yes | 22c | 102.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdccc…3ac3backed No | 78c | 79.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 64c | 42.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f7…dc16backed Yes | 33c | 42.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 34c | 32.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 66c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe8…e79ebacked No | 69c | 29.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x907b…1177backed No | 66c | 27.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dec…5bfbbacked No | 69c | 22.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…2e0dbacked No | 69c | 21.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…bfbbbacked No | 72c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fd…4e25backed No | 69c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3c…abdabacked No | 69c | 19.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.