Token Launches · resolved market
Will Kanye West launch his own blockchain before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb474d95c4ef2ccff6bf5cbadf3920d0367ad3e1df2190159059d45e34df54099
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes | 11c | 7,998$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 12c | 2,122$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 22c | 1,956$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…ab32backed Yes | 12c | 1,580$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 11c | 1,367$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 76c | 1,100$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e5cfbacked Yes | 12c | 826.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc61…6938backed Yes | 7c | 675.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 76c | 654$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.96 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 5c | 519.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0d…04a3backed Yes | 6c | 512.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 6c | 369.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…64f8backed Yes | 11c | 350$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 18c | 319.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +622.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 301.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 6c | 299.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4a…d38ebacked Yes | 18c | 274.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…3c47backed Yes | 8c | 263.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd11…e918backed Yes | 5c | 234.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 224.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf9…f43bbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…0b95backed Yes | 13c | 162$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 11c | 139.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 133.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…3a00backed Yes | 16c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…6bf5backed Yes | 11c | 114.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…f162backed Yes | 10c | 102.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…6a7dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x439a…e4e4backed Yes | 14c | 85.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…e937backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.