TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$347,176
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$285,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,176 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbad2…5296backed Yes63c14,887$9,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,326.531625%4 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes41c10,859$4,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,469.74540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+2,956.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No56c10,518$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,617.736943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc862…755fbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f91…f529backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a3…9dcdbacked No68c6,689$4,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes42c6,563$2,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,783.711233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes70c6,538$4,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,548.241145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+117.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No54c5,300$2,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,430.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4178…bb11backed Yes1c4,992$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.47911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9830…df31backed No53c4,439$2,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,068.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No40c4,308$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,576.012927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf01…6865backed No52c4,301$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2ae3…bc70backed No75c4,300$3,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.27450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87bd…4c30backed Yes0c3,370$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Yes47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No32c2,913$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980.3414938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes49c2,685$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.093641.7%15 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No55c2,640$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.831050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9378…d2ddbacked Yes47c2,487$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6021…31a6backed No33c2,207$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.6450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+50.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Yes46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed No35c1,963$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271.662744.4%12 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No54c1,795$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.021040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Yes42c1,774$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes41c1,762$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes78c1,733$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.89825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid+19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed No50c1,387$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.15812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Yes66c1,374$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No73c1,311$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.3724732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ba…5435backed No31c1,290$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.4812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes62c1,266$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.491275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c1,192$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.064629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked No27c1,133$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.41040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked No43c1,042$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.761637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x340d…0f96backed Yes52c1,031$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfafb…27eabacked No35c1,014$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.06933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes43c997$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.261225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-46.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No34c989.37$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.7216334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes66c953.72$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.637844.9%35 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5754…ce04backed Yes53c800$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd142…5c9ebacked No59c739.85$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1318…df41backed Yes55c718$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes37c704.32$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.811421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes63c700.24$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.452814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked Yes72c698.2$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked No34c642.18$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.871942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes68c584.21$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.46per pick62cpaid-47.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes65c575$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.751442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes20c549.1$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.681060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+69%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd570…b90abacked No47c511.7$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.71747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fc3…e92ebacked No40c502.76$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.89333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No24c500$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3804626.1%12 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No61c500$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1942759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaae9…d661backed No62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+41.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked Yes75c500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes64c463.68$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed No29c453.12$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.221643.8%7 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick19cpaid+37.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No57c446.82$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.212924.1%7 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb76a…716dbacked No45c445.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2076…4dc1backed Yes68c439.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7826…20b1backed No46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.78742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+701.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No49c423.13$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.587842.3%33 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes59c422.66$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.373243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde35…0239backed No25c421.09$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36ed…4a93backed Yes48c420$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.61040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed No33c416.92$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.32133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+41.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes64c408.98$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.319939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes69c400$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+74%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98dc…9949backed No58c399.99$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9d…2ee4backed No26c390.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.89580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+72.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf920…4d4ebacked No52c383.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No27c370.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.373724.3%9 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb3…b498backed No54c350$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+55.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf43…2119backed Yes77c347.08$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No65c345.14$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.811154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes71c322.98$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.714461.4%27 W · 17 L+6.2wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Yes50c320.43$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No37c305.61$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.79650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe577…6c42backed Yes59c300$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.44425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1654946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed No23c300$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+94.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed Yes53c289.99$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3da…d974backed No34c283.99$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes5c281.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.071457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+82.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd94e…e127backed Yes58c260.85$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecef…b593backed No51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed Yes72c250$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x515a…de7fbacked No62c247.81$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No23c239.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+57.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x403c…cd78backed No47c213.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No40c209.72$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.02875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+62.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b9e…94cfbacked Yes45c200.26$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No63c200$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-40.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…2fb8backed No27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1461100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb72c…653ebacked No29c200$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1421520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf65…fde8backed No38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+162.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3db…1959backed Yes66c200$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf4e…7875backed Yes71c197.95$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.