Music · resolved market
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaecce2b7062a75acef14d739910c6c599b1640aa191caaf1d0a3798eeba0f09e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $347,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $285,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 63c | 14,887$9,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,326.53 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 41c | 10,859$4,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,469.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +2,956.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 56c | 10,518$5,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,617.73 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc862…755fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f91…f529backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…9dcdbacked No | 68c | 6,689$4,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,109.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 42c | 6,563$2,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,783.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 70c | 6,538$4,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,548.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 54c | 5,300$2,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…bb11backed Yes | 1c | 4,992$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9830…df31backed No | 53c | 4,439$2,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 40c | 4,308$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,576.01 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…6865backed No | 52c | 4,301$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,051.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed No | 75c | 4,300$3,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…4c30backed Yes | 0c | 3,370$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Yes | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 2,913$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.34 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 49c | 2,685$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.09 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 55c | 2,640$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9378…d2ddbacked Yes | 47c | 2,487$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…31a6backed No | 33c | 2,207$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Yes | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 35c | 1,963$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.66 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 54c | 1,795$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Yes | 42c | 1,774$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 41c | 1,762$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 78c | 1,733$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…8433backed No | 50c | 1,387$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Yes | 66c | 1,374$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 1,311$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.37 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…5435backed No | 31c | 1,290$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 62c | 1,266$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.49 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,192$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 27c | 1,133$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 43c | 1,042$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…0f96backed Yes | 52c | 1,031$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…27eabacked No | 35c | 1,014$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 43c | 997$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 989.37$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.72 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 66c | 953.72$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.63 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…ce04backed Yes | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd142…5c9ebacked No | 59c | 739.85$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed Yes | 55c | 718$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 37c | 704.32$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 63c | 700.24$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.45 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 72c | 698.2$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 34c | 642.18$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.87 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 68c | 584.21$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.46per pick | 62cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 65c | 575$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 20c | 549.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked No | 47c | 511.7$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc3…e92ebacked No | 40c | 502.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 61c | 500$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…d661backed No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 64c | 463.68$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…ecf7backed No | 29c | 453.12$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 57c | 446.82$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.21 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…716dbacked No | 45c | 445.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…4dc1backed Yes | 68c | 439.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed No | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +701.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 49c | 423.13$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.58 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 59c | 422.66$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.37 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde35…0239backed No | 25c | 421.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Yes | 48c | 420$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 33c | 416.92$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 64c | 408.98$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.3 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 69c | 400$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed No | 58c | 399.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9d…2ee4backed No | 26c | 390.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…4d4ebacked No | 52c | 383.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…b498backed No | 54c | 350$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…2119backed Yes | 77c | 347.08$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 65c | 345.14$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 71c | 322.98$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.71 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Yes | 50c | 320.43$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 37c | 305.61$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…6c42backed Yes | 59c | 300$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 23c | 300$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 53c | 289.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 34c | 283.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 5c | 281.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd94e…e127backed Yes | 58c | 260.85$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed No | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 72c | 250$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…de7fbacked No | 62c | 247.81$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 23c | 239.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…cd78backed No | 47c | 213.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 40c | 209.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…94cfbacked Yes | 45c | 200.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…2fb8backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…fde8backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3db…1959backed Yes | 66c | 200$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4e…7875backed Yes | 71c | 197.95$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?this page
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?Yes won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2500000 and 2750000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2750000 and 3000000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3000000 and 3250000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3250000 and 3500000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3500000 and 3750000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3750000 and 4000000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.