TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$448,651
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$306,695

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $448,651 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…2657backed Yes44c15,946$6,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,006.25683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes27c14,568$3,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,6414151.2%21 W · 20 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+45.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4fe1…46d0backed No53c10,096$5,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,312.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4178…bb11backed No5c10,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a3…9dcdbacked Yes65c7,906$5,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,784.35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes28c7,707$2,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,523.086943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No40c7,019$2,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,781.181625%4 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7e7…8f26backed No61c5,746$3,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,514.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes9c5,614$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,118.542924.1%7 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes23c5,482$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,219.85425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x501f…f746backed Yes22c5,405$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,221.431118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1318…df41backed No59c3,612$2,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,113.9720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fb6…a986backed Yes47c3,154$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No48c2,967$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.6114938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No33c2,316$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.942646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-3.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5df…2f2dbacked Yes66c2,269$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x023c…bdafbacked Yes67c2,152$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes75c2,137$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes1c2,127$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.02540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+2,956.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e0e…a433backed Yes53c2,074$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.73714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes49c1,978$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.222744.4%12 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes12c1,741$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.453243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes52c1,623$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No25c1,611$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.881050%5 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+152%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes65c1,549$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd570…b90abacked Yes49c1,456$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.531747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6b…b1dbbacked Yes52c1,414$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.991225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ce…f74dbacked Yes58c1,305$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No58c1,125$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.57616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.46per pick62cpaid-47.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes2c1,120$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.762015%3 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+196.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c1,079$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.744629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Yes64c1,073$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7826…20b1backed Yes2c1,018$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+701.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes40c1,007$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.412759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaae9…d661backed No25c1,000$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.09560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+41.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6401637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No67c944.33$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.681050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes54c935.19$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.361020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d4a…6cb1backed No55c920.62$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.74955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c3…766cbacked Yes3c858.06$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.06333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+959.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked No50c800$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed No57c800$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa836…1c10backed No38c782.63$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7380…8c1bbacked Yes64c776.12$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a6…1b6cbacked Yes28c753.36$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.62825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6445…f190backed Yes50c750$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes42c719.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.78540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Yes49c680$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.712642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f32…74aabacked Yes75c661.6$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7007…5535backed Yes47c643.63$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+76.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79e8…ee73backed No49c607.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6021…31a6backed Yes33c600$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.8450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+50.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked Yes52c574.06$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.261942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x515a…de7fbacked Yes50c572.7$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.47450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes37c543.72$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.31656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3701…ce16backed No66c530.97$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.7771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+37.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes38c500$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3091442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Yes55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ed…6dbabacked Yes74c486.17$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb72c…653ebacked Yes13c485.79$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.791520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x98dc…9949backed No63c480$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No28c479.9$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9324732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…1456backed Yes66c469.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.72922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes55c425$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.251546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde20…fb9fbacked Yes46c423.52$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ea5…a58ebacked Yes52c387.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes8c385.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.962133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+41.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No52c369$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.332524%6 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Yes51c350$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed Yes42c350$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2031643.8%7 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick19cpaid+37.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb0bb…a95bbacked No42c321.4$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.4960%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8e3…5061backed No59c320.08$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed No37c316.46$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.02812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f1…ec06backed No60c297.16$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b0a…4775backed Yes70c287.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca1…2366backed Yes63c280.87$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46ed…cfa6backed Yes80c251.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No46c250$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1162927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a3…3490backed Yes43c230.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+93.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x944d…049abacked Yes73c227.23$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes29c225.47$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.251040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes62c225$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.5850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+37%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8cf…132abacked Yes43c222.99$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+129.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c8f…5c18backed No38c201.36$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ba…5435backed No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e4…3076backed Yes43c200$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.41225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-46.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc020…cd71backed Yes33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa968…aa45backed Yes41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1181100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53da…7603backed Yes53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked No36c199.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+1,685.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5c…c2e3backed Yes75c199.57$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc32d…02c2backed Yes73c199.51$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8733…a6f0backed Yes77c191.79$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Yes54c190$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x756d…75e6backed Yes43c187.66$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.99850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f6…a3f4backed No76c184.84$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9119…d179backed Yes44c184.83$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82bb…85a8backed Yes55c180$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No26c176.77$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.961421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.