Music · resolved market
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3500000 and 3750000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb42e6d22961724aa8a7cabc5ea1f5ed764c234efe4bf19fe445eb95282f6c6a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 5c | 10,093$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.44 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…9dcdbacked Yes | 26c | 8,113$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…bb11backed Yes | 9c | 7,687$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.81 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 5c | 5,965$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.59 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…f01cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,627$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9119…d179backed Yes | 10c | 3,467$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,937$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed Yes | 5c | 2,787$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,599$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +2,956.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 10c | 2,186$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.86 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 2,088$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 2c | 1,900$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,741$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,672$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…a4acbacked Yes | 6c | 1,575$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…5435backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a7…6dd3backed Yes | 12c | 1,451$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes | 8c | 1,418$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…166fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,215$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked Yes | 8c | 1,195$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ff…f475backed Yes | 9c | 1,056$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…cbe3backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 12c | 988.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 3c | 935$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x153c…ac5abacked Yes | 19c | 928.6$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…8433backed Yes | 22c | 906.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…4c30backed Yes | 9c | 903.23$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e8…ee73backed Yes | 23c | 880.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…ecf7backed Yes | 6c | 803.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Yes | 3c | 692.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +701.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…5af0backed Yes | 8c | 642.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51cf…51e9backed Yes | 8c | 579.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed Yes | 7c | 531.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 16c | 500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f26…23e7backed Yes | 6c | 464.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65e…5cc1backed Yes | 6c | 450$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 6c | 430$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…0c79backed Yes | 19c | 412.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 7c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde20…fb9fbacked Yes | 6c | 352.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 12c | 338.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 7c | 332.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 19c | 322.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd646…f37ebacked Yes | 6c | 319.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 311.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5640…0aa7backed Yes | 7c | 281.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 18c | 276.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 7c | 275$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec6…a530backed Yes | 21c | 271.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 6c | 252.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…a433backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa321…60e5backed Yes | 6c | 249.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3d…a73fbacked Yes | 10c | 240.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7c…27a7backed Yes | 25c | 224.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 13c | 209.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344e…121bbacked Yes | 20c | 200.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…a95bbacked Yes | 15c | 194.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 20c | 181$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 12c | 180.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…8edcbacked Yes | 8c | 157.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…dbbcbacked Yes | 8c | 155$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3931…57cebacked Yes | 8c | 137$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb62…bb20backed Yes | 8c | 123.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…7ec2backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…1d59backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…9375backed Yes | 21c | 60.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3500000 and 3750000?this page
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?Yes won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2500000 and 2750000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2750000 and 3000000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3000000 and 3250000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3250000 and 3500000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3750000 and 4000000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.