Music · resolved market
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2750000 and 3000000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f51005890c252f431a96206952a8f8280e95edcffc8df46a38742e230e8d647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4178…bb11backed Yes | 3c | 12,063$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…ecf7backed Yes | 2c | 6,098$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…5435backed Yes | 1c | 5,330$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f91…f529backed Yes | 0c | 3,154$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…b490backed Yes | 2c | 1,505$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 1,267$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,086$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 5c | 1,022$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 6c | 999.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…0a23backed Yes | 6c | 904.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…6c98backed Yes | 7c | 771.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…8433backed Yes | 13c | 749.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 8c | 600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 3c | 512.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 8c | 400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 388.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Yes | 25c | 293.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked Yes | 20c | 224.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…9e90backed Yes | 8c | 220.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…b009backed Yes | 8c | 215.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…1864backed Yes | 14c | 138.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f26…23e7backed Yes | 45c | 111.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 20c | 100.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 20c | 77.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2750000 and 3000000?this page
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?Yes won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 2500000 and 2750000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3000000 and 3250000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3250000 and 3500000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3500000 and 3750000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3750000 and 4000000?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.