NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Thunder
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a92af6ebac9311cd6b3483da93183dc256d8441e9775f7c2be32bdf1d51781c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Hornets, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6d4…2a42backed Thunder | 80c | 10,001$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.5 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Hornets | 20c | 10,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…45b0backed Hornets | 22c | 5,775$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93a…8b69backed Hornets | 11c | 4,722$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 78c | 4,639$3,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Hornets | 9c | 3,723$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.38 | 652 | 18.4%120 W · 532 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Hornets | 22c | 3,050$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Thunder | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Hornets | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Hornets | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hornets | 20c | 2,324$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.47 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Hornets | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Thunder | 77c | 1,701$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.27 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Hornets | 12c | 1,615$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.63 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Hornets | 6c | 1,436$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Hornets | 22c | 1,200$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Thunder | 78c | 1,182$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.04 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Hornets | 16c | 1,018$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.37 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…f73bbacked Hornets | 21c | 999.97$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Thunder | 79c | 853$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.91 | 736 | 47.3%348 W · 388 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…1cedbacked Hornets | 22c | 782.11$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 243 | 23.9%58 W · 185 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Thunder | 80c | 628.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.39 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Hornets | 22c | 599.84$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.96 | 252 | 36.9%93 W · 159 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Thunder | 80c | 538$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.69 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Hornets | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 236 | 46.6%110 W · 126 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Hornets | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Hornets | 14c | 432.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 21c | 394$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Hornets | 25c | 385$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…6914backed Hornets | 18c | 315.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked Thunder | 79c | 310$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…2785backed Thunder | 80c | 282.43$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Hornets | 9c | 274.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Hornets | 20c | 260$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 166 | 17.5%29 W · 137 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Hornets | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ee…700bbacked Hornets | 12c | 249.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef8…9cb2backed Thunder | 79c | 242.91$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Thunder | 73c | 218$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Hornets | 22c | 215.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 489 | 38.7%189 W · 300 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Hornets | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 394 | 35.3%139 W · 255 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Hornets | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Hornets | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…0ef4backed Hornets | 10c | 195.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Hornets | 7c | 166.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…05bdbacked Hornets | 12c | 154.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…2cfdbacked Thunder | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…0be3backed Thunder | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Hornets | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -18.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Hornets | 21c | 94.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Thunder | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 241 | 66.4%160 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0622backed Hornets | 17c | 71.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Thunder | 73c | 65.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 241 | 47.3%114 W · 127 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b19…1058backed Thunder | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…e05dbacked Thunder | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +682.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Thunder | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3305…f25fbacked Thunder | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2f…179abacked Hornets | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Hornets | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…a752backed Thunder | 78c | 34.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…33debacked Thunder | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b59…2d45backed Thunder | 79c | 26.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 63cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…fbbcbacked Thunder | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…37b6backed Thunder | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Thunder | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b70…788bbacked Thunder | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Thunder | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…76d3backed Thunder | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…f2e3backed Thunder | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8764…17adbacked Thunder | 78c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe169…a972backed Thunder | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Thunder | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Thunder | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Thunder | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Thunderthis page
- Hornets vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.