Weather · resolved market
Another Earthquake 7.0 or above in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6f1f3b8806c21c4c005c7dc12b87b0afcb0bdc153629458b2ccb9f2675c04cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4974…ea15backed Yes | 43c | 4,401$1,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 51c | 3,654$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,854.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…e3e1backed No | 40c | 2,662$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked No | 42c | 2,379$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 39c | 2,301$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 45c | 2,199$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…bdf4backed No | 70c | 2,129$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 36c | 1,851$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.12 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 28c | 1,743$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 39c | 1,135$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 1,091$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 999.95$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.97 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd09d…2c73backed No | 57c | 999.13$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 41c | 976.5$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.93 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 45c | 940.81$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 64c | 927.37$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.77 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 54c | 858.57$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.98 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 11c | 845.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…0667backed No | 39c | 790$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 6c | 785.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +207.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 80c | 731.03$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.71 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f07…b0d3backed No | 67c | 707.51$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 675.69$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…955cbacked Yes | 41c | 600$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ab…cdcbbacked No | 43c | 580.3$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 70c | 534.26$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 48c | 498.39$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 65c | 488.85$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6726…eabdbacked Yes | 62c | 483.13$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 51c | 480.45$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed Yes | 24c | 455.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccda…4937backed No | 49c | 405.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked No | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes | 28c | 352.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…0221backed Yes | 35c | 352.89$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c11…c503backed Yes | 36c | 351.41$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 61c | 321.93$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…2264backed Yes | 66c | 302.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 299.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 278.21$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b06…a723backed Yes | 64c | 267.41$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 36c | 255$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 49c | 251.42$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…7930backed No | 64c | 243.41$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f7…071cbacked No | 44c | 225.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e3…4aaebacked Yes | 62c | 224.79$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e9…62c3backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…cf72backed No | 54c | 205.87$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +135%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 31c | 192.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 61c | 190$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449b…cd0cbacked Yes | 8c | 172.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 15c | 159.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…e236backed Yes | 63c | 159.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 41c | 156.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked No | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…6c7abacked Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…6b39backed No | 67c | 149.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a8…ba8dbacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed No | 34c | 144.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2c…cad8backed No | 63c | 131.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec5…2bbdbacked No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 60c | 108.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…9f0ebacked Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…c807backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…8049backed No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0f…740fbacked No | 77c | 102.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed No | 40c | 102.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…3e95backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f99…8b05backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…a089backed Yes | 33c | 97.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 63c | 94.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 60c | 85.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…2680backed No | 69c | 85.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 36c | 82.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 48c | 77.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 17c | 75.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked No | 46c | 69.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x295d…5cbcbacked No | 75c | 66.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…9e4ebacked No | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 63c | 64.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…b258backed No | 74c | 54.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5326…f3efbacked Yes | 55c | 54.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.