TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$146,528
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$156,439

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,528 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38e5…95e7backed No11c8,452$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.617611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c6,099$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.996291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No14c3,010$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.8315452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes74c1,766$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.0127536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes75c1,562$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.313540%14 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No30c1,282$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.6625831.8%82 W · 176 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c1,220$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.551,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed No1c1,095$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.19290%0 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f43…cf42backed Yes77c1,076$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.27560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No8c897.41$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.26010%6 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c843.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.922522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No19c806.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3747938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No6c775.95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.82792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No5c718.93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.38870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No19c694.81$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.439850%49 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes72c692.85$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.578754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No15c675.59$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7120148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No4c634.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.611175.1%6 W · 111 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-65.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No11c617.29$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5518311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes74c600.45$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.125448.1%26 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No6c585.77$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.65724.2%3 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes75c585.67$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.6218323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7419…d545backed No23c531.9$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed No3c512.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.172611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-34.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No7c507.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.84850%0 W · 85 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9272…0a19backed Yes66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea4b…90f5backed Yes74c431.99$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed Yes70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1207948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No8c375$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.26425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-32.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x612a…e526backed Yes70c360.01$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x989b…d3b0backed Yes72c350$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2110…5850backed Yes70c350$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1046048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No16c320.4$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.584052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1401…0707backed No18c313.55$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.791450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed No8c303.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51521.9%1 W · 51 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…1456backed Yes66c299.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a9…637ebacked Yes67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e27…602ebacked No35c283.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes76c270$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.81681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1666…ba7bbacked Yes79c266.48$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.48580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa3f…cc4fbacked Yes76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-60.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0026…1ed5backed Yes77c258.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.68540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-41.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d4a…5a1abacked Yes78c255.81$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes74c250$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick49cpaid-69.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes70c243.86$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.479940.4%40 W · 59 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No26c241.45$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.059157.1%52 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed No26c233.4$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.31258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+191%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No7c211$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7911720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc690…0decbacked Yes71c210.35$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.351163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes73c207$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.897636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x490a…db32backed Yes77c203.18$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.21425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No10c201.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.09712.8%2 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb5…ed22backed Yes78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.428041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0683…dbf3backed Yes74c190.08$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes67c172.13$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3511855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No25c158.21$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.167852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked No33c150.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick15cpaid-88.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes71c150.7$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.451520%3 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bea…93d1backed Yes68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-83.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1940…f54abacked Yes69c144.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No24c142.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1814339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2c…5933backed Yes71c140.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+89.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c59…7e7fbacked Yes72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.893100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+83.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe50f…cb4dbacked Yes74c135.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe633…c0febacked Yes78c134.97$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.284934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f81…fa70backed Yes70c134.29$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x980d…4a2bbacked Yes76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe901…97bfbacked Yes76c131.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb00…c338backed Yes77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf386…1158backed Yes78c128.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.591855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked Yes73c128.1$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.32365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x386e…3857backed Yes74c127.84$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.241060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No19c123.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.257426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f32…3916backed Yes78c123$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9be4…ffb9backed No28c120$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd757…94aabacked Yes68c120$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e55…d20dbacked Yes79c111.39$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.39250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1f…b449backed No15c109.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-46.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No16c106.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4332329.1%94 W · 229 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9956…ec0cbacked Yes71c104.51$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fe…cd9abacked No25c104.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No27c103.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5314355.2%79 W · 64 L+16.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x76d0…5e07backed Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3da…d974backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…b8d0backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x749f…9501backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e3…cda8backed No20c95.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-55.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce3…e0c7backed No16c95.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No21c90.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.675950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ec2…f8fabacked Yes70c90.42$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.13475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+191.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No25c80.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4189417.1%153 W · 741 L-145.2wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.4%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xb5fd…4b53backed Yes76c80$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dab…73b3backed Yes70c77.9$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.372100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+126.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No31c75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2520544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e09…20fdbacked No30c73.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a1c…c03abacked Yes76c72.74$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022e…acc0backed Yes69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.46757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.