AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aee79c86848772a8560fde02de8867010fc462f7c8d336547a6895f9558a839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 21c | 50,000$10,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 28,839$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.55 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 79c | 27,065$21,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,683.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 79c | 10,007$7,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.56 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 7c | 9,985$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.24 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 79c | 6,725$5,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.15 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…e5ccbacked Yes | 6c | 5,533$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 2c | 4,999$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 5c | 4,651$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.91 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 6c | 4,386$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.68 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 4c | 2,674$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 2,412$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,280$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795a…b875backed Yes | 7c | 2,095$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,748$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbc…3533backed Yes | 5c | 1,700$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 5c | 1,631$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,574$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.94 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 4c | 1,437$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 3c | 1,362$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…93d1backed Yes | 15c | 1,352$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 2c | 1,294$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 5c | 1,245$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,197$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,127$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 11c | 1,060$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 4c | 976.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 951.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 939.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 831.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…dbbcbacked Yes | 11c | 815.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 772.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 6c | 747.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 545.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 7c | 506.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c6…e145backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 3c | 449.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed Yes | 3c | 448.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 4c | 438.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 413.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…554fbacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8f…1cb8backed Yes | 5c | 394.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Yes | 7c | 394.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 3c | 389.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes | 4c | 388.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 327.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4af…6a73backed Yes | 16c | 312.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 306.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed Yes | 5c | 270.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…cd6bbacked Yes | 11c | 255.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4a…0c3ebacked Yes | 7c | 227.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0820backed Yes | 12c | 222.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…719cbacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes | 11c | 218.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ee…7f95backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 5c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 6c | 172.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 11c | 172.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…2c8bbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Yes | 13c | 161.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +217.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…761abacked Yes | 12c | 129.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed No | 79c | 125.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…c565backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9614…1d7abacked Yes | 12c | 98.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.