AI · resolved market
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa47ef2b14cfacbb42792efde289e5511ae783f46f947d4a49e0d6d8dc7fdd4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $424,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $473,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 35,864$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,429$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 17,804$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 0c | 17,799$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…0f1fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,236$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a88…0f23backed Yes | 1c | 9,129$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc5…607fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,637$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd05c…70d6backed Yes | 1c | 7,130$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…c169backed Yes | 1c | 7,118$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b3…2c94backed Yes | 1c | 7,095$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c8…3a9abacked Yes | 1c | 7,090$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…4fa3backed Yes | 1c | 7,076$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088e…a660backed Yes | 1c | 7,070$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336d…9091backed Yes | 1c | 7,065$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa12…37e2backed Yes | 1c | 7,050$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164a…2dbfbacked Yes | 1c | 7,030$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…12dfbacked Yes | 1c | 6,638$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fb…88dfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,415$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.