AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1e44d2856898be76914da85743c342a3667fd442f569959541aa92e2c0c1e89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 14,117$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.87 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 2c | 13,020$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 1c | 11,210$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.63 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba7…ae61backed Yes | 7c | 10,895$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 14c | 9,397$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.24 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 9c | 7,148$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.44 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…e0b8backed No | 77c | 6,799$5,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,497$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.71 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…e8e2backed Yes | 23c | 3,831$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…dd4ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,033$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…aef7backed Yes | 2c | 2,889$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.21 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,830$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.15 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…bb89backed Yes | 16c | 1,816$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Yes | 2c | 1,776$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 27cpaid | +226%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe355…7625backed Yes | 24c | 1,729$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…2609backed Yes | 5c | 1,626$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,612$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2074…767cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,506$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,429$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.01 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbc…3533backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.22 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 4c | 1,184$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbef…7de2backed Yes | 11c | 1,065$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.76 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…421abacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…005bbacked Yes | 25c | 985.25$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…4b43backed No | 75c | 912$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.18 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 10c | 831.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed Yes | 12c | 829.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 825.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…fcbebacked Yes | 5c | 816.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 8c | 791.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…43cdbacked Yes | 9c | 787.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 20c | 748.75$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…44dabacked Yes | 20c | 728.81$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 724.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 80c | 701.82$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.74 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…4a07backed Yes | 21c | 700$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 17c | 620.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…e1aabacked Yes | 9c | 577.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 19c | 574.01$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.73 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 11c | 573.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 24c | 571.28$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…73d7backed Yes | 14c | 563.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 551.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 22c | 500$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…2312backed Yes | 25c | 500$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 23c | 456.26$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 8c | 430.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 412.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 14c | 400$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…7777backed Yes | 4c | 388.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 10c | 371.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 10c | 362.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 29c | 350.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 313.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 25c | 309.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 9c | 298.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…1e95backed Yes | 13c | 296.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…1a1abacked Yes | 22c | 265$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf14…c731backed Yes | 8c | 243.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee8…bfa1backed Yes | 8c | 240.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 8c | 237.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…f3f2backed Yes | 23c | 234.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090f…312fbacked Yes | 22c | 232.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98de…bf1bbacked Yes | 11c | 220.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb761…253abacked Yes | 5c | 207.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb018…8891backed Yes | 12c | 204.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5f…697ebacked Yes | 25c | 201.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…6ccdbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbd…f407backed Yes | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd105…184ebacked Yes | 22c | 197.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde8…211abacked Yes | 18c | 194.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 183.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…5d5abacked Yes | 26c | 183.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…ee32backed Yes | 22c | 181.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…90f5backed Yes | 17c | 181.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 21c | 172.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 24c | 165$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed Yes | 10c | 162.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a2…9d26backed Yes | 10c | 146.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…0a1bbacked Yes | 17c | 142.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ea…b011backed Yes | 23c | 135.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 74c | 129.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 77c | 128.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…3e8abacked Yes | 8c | 125.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 21c | 119.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…f742backed Yes | 18c | 108.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf1…5583backed Yes | 25c | 100.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…2c25backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd129…7487backed Yes | 26c | 83.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…a8f4backed Yes | 24c | 81.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…b84ebacked Yes | 14c | 80.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…5240backed Yes | 25c | 80.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…d4debacked Yes | 22c | 63.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 19c | 55.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.