Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump create External Revenue Service before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1670f3f1770e7b0fabd8a4ff0d2a794e6570fdc986a6e5509e7eed4539b88e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 28c | 4,000$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.99 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 8c | 2,890$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.53 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 71c | 2,318$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.47 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 79c | 2,003$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.51 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,841$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,594$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.82 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 1,557$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 17c | 1,458$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.91 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 77c | 1,142$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.64 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb9…74bfbacked No | 77c | 1,136$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 1,096$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.21 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 27c | 869.33$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.53 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 75c | 734.52$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.5 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 79c | 699.57$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.23 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 73c | 432.04$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 30c | 408.86$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 4c | 352.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 349.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 337.06$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…0b9ebacked No | 73c | 274.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9b…7faabacked No | 73c | 230$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 22c | 167.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 13c | 124.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 22c | 120.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 68c | 107.41$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Yes | 14c | 106.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 106$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 103$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…78cebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 17c | 98.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 70c | 71.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…d4ecbacked No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 29c | 46.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe425…9e9abacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 78c | 38.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…bad1backed No | 77c | 37.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…1a8dbacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…cb07backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 71c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b17…fecebacked No | 77c | 13.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.