World Politics · resolved market
Will Canada lower tariffs on the U.S. before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b56dfd9b87a582bca9587f9ce7a80845a1342e701d9b3cffa60bcbdd1f62f2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7215…9842backed Yes | 52c | 1,307$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 1,250$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 27c | 1,112$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.07 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 33c | 1,082$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.82 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed No | 52c | 911.15$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.78 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2daa…a350backed Yes | 21c | 887.95$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.7 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 32c | 791.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 34c | 661.01$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 78c | 650.98$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.01 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…97c9backed Yes | 28c | 528.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e8…3c90backed Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 45c | 469.19$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.97 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +816.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 468.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 65c | 391$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.37 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 20c | 353.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c2…6472backed Yes | 15c | 352$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 20c | 344.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 25c | 331.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 15c | 279.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.3 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…ce2fbacked Yes | 25c | 260.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 18c | 257.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2172…1bf1backed Yes | 43c | 231.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed No | 76c | 217.3$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 30c | 209.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 200.88$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed No | 58c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…7b93backed No | 73c | 180.07$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 35c | 179.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 19c | 159.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 23c | 148.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked No | 71c | 140.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 31c | 137.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 28c | 136.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817d…0863backed No | 66c | 134.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 121.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed Yes | 42c | 119.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 67c | 109.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f28…82e0backed Yes | 12c | 106.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 20c | 94.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 13c | 90.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 36c | 86.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 21c | 82.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4a…5ad8backed No | 61c | 81.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e0…61dbbacked Yes | 31c | 81.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 74.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa273…7786backed No | 66c | 74.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 48c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 74c | 67.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked No | 58c | 63.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 66c | 62.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d1…7423backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 52c | 56.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…a7f9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a4…f43ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6943…7462backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f0c4backed Yes | 50c | 49.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…1863backed No | 78c | 49.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 62c | 49.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 33c | 48.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked No | 78c | 48.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c07cbacked No | 67c | 47.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed No | 65c | 43.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc370…829abacked Yes | 40c | 38.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf27…5f0fbacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 32cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5326…f3efbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +201.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8d…70febacked Yes | 42c | 27.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf061…2572backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 40c | 25.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051e…8eabbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.