TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Eric Adams drop out?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,524,518
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,561,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,524,518 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,539 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes57c108,831$61,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,335.872245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No33c98,157$32,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,865.386145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes45c80,859$36,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,592.0112630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked No45c69,151$31,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,347.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No39c68,198$26,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,700.7435519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbfe…0845backed No25c67,491$16,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,600.1862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed No56c66,069$37,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,061.721040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc284…55dbbacked Yes64c60,864$38,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,883.99475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+130.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No27c54,026$14,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,853.583754.1%20 W · 17 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+55%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No31c48,818$15,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,241.2619236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes71c46,867$33,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,659.1341238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a6d…1e7cbacked No1c42,600$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Yes56c40,171$22,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,630.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked No37c35,491$13,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,061.71050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No41c33,170$13,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,761.2899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No46c32,146$14,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,851.327458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes71c30,849$21,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,052.972941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c9…6ef7backed Yes51c28,343$14,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,003.72560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No46c21,253$9,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,709.598536.5%31 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Yes76c20,000$15,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,804.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed Yes59c19,028$11,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,792.49862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+47.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes49c17,772$8,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,988.676740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc550…97d6backed Yes60c15,944$9,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,334.16475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+83.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed No40c15,646$6,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,289.391936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes63c15,374$9,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,678.453560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No34c15,269$5,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,177.8110749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed No33c15,147$4,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,991.634247.6%20 W · 22 L+6.9wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+68.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes48c14,717$7,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,689.0711336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes66c14,069$9,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,746.047041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No25c13,996$3,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,539.0713714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes63c13,707$8,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,021.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked No24c13,418$3,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,220.411315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-77.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed No33c13,358$4,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,460.673262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No28c13,001$3,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,692.724320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b2…1f2cbacked Yes63c11,981$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,481.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1295…640dbacked Yes80c10,975$8,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+135.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No29c10,875$3,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,205.3114940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x488e…ffd8backed Yes33c10,321$3,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,932.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+204.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1de…5834backed No35c10,139$3,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,505.91862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No27c10,083$2,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,697.3510347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Yes60c10,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,999.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+210.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked No25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.983928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No22c9,890$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.117146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes55c9,850$5,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,466.410950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4453…1f25backed Yes63c9,142$5,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,418.692100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+213.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes54c9,000$4,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,168.632250%11 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No45c8,798$3,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,962.118134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b66…26c9backed No46c8,616$3,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,949.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fbe…819ebacked Yes64c8,568$5,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,123.26560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No31c8,180$2,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,529.3233313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Yes70c7,908$5,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,395.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes66c7,860$5,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,646.213540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf501…8852backed No52c7,712$4,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,045.121323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-68.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No33c7,525$2,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.583548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No23c7,484$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720.6532626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes69c7,250$4,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,254.482740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+96.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No45c7,237$3,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,286.1210324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No41c7,227$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.1917633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes69c7,170$4,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.75837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes69c7,106$4,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,202.34580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+54.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No43c7,091$3,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,021.838444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c9…ab2ebacked Yes64c7,000$4,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,535.02366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54bb…35e5backed Yes59c6,959$4,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27a…4cdebacked Yes58c6,852$4,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,851.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No42c6,834$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,837.9116144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No43c6,698$2,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,861.042339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No40c6,670$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,667.3314048.6%68 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes41c6,594$2,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,915.143542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1537…c480backed Yes44c6,523$2,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,621.52650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f5…fe12backed Yes69c6,217$4,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,935.671637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked No42c6,142$2,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,593.851735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…2657backed No44c6,123$2,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,694.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes33c6,036$1,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,064.544353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df4…7771backed Yes65c5,988$3,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.593100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+161.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No42c5,908$2,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,473.412649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes76c5,826$4,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.83969.2%27 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No49c5,699$2,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,780.6221634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No2c5,556$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.18331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed Yes59c5,525$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,275.48955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d73…bae7backed Yes65c5,509$3,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,942.291163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes60c5,363$3,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.811631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe624…e63bbacked Yes63c5,044$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.34666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked No35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed No38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9001450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes64c4,987$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.8618425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30f…f4ddbacked Yes75c4,868$3,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No60c4,800$2,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,889.5669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c0e…434ebacked Yes63c4,781$3,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.861233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No10c4,700$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47513216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes59c4,592$2,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.792544%11 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…df43backed No41c4,499$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes66c4,475$2,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,528.548749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No35c4,357$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.2523639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a56…adabbacked No27c4,343$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.552147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6998…9ff2backed Yes63c4,321$2,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.341020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db7…c901backed Yes68c4,291$2,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.012850%14 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9e…7bd8backed No27c4,187$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.29540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d2…d685backed No27c4,174$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No36c4,122$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.252821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…2ab2backed Yes32c3,901$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,647.3560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+105.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.